Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kalmar Oyj €45.48, price €39.20, upside +16.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range €23.18 – €49.71 · fair‑value band €32.14 – €59.25 · the €39.20 price screens below the €45.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kalmar Oyj provides heavy material handling equipment and services for ports, terminals, distribution centres, manufacturing, and heavy logistics industries in the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in two segments, Equipment and Services.
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Kalmar Oyj provides heavy material handling equipment and services for ports, terminals, distribution centres, manufacturing, and heavy logistics industries in the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in two segments, Equipment and Services. The company offers reach stackers, forklift trucks, empty container handlers, terminal tractors, straddle carriers, and spreaders. It also provides spare parts; on-call and contract maintenance services; and data, analytics, and AI services. In addition, the company offers lifecycle services, including refurbishments, and fleet management and upgrades; equipment that can use hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO); and robotics equipment. The company was incorporated in 2024 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) currently trades at €39.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €45.48, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €52.14 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the €39.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €8.85, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €32.14 (bear) to €59.25 (bull), the price of €39.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Kalmar Oyj reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was €163M in FY2025, compounding −11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.5B · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) €2.62 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 16%, KALMAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €32.14Fair Value €45.48Bull €59.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.11 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.9% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kalmar Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KALMAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €45.48 versus a price of €39.20, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KALMAR?
Our model-based fair value for Kalmar Oyj is €45.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €39.20.
What is the quality score of KALMAR?
Kalmar Oyj has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €45.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €32.14, optimistic scenario €59.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kalmar Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €45.48, about +16% upside versus a price of €39.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €32.14, optimistic scenario €59.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Kalmar Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kalmar Oyj pay a dividend?
Kalmar Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kalmar Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KALMAR use?
Our models discount Kalmar Oyj at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kalmar Oyj that is +6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Kalmar Oyj grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kalmar Oyj (+6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.67 %: that much free cash flow Kalmar Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kalmar Oyj it is €45.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €39.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kalmar Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KALMAR trades below its calculated fair value: price €39.20, fair value €45.48, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KALMAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€39.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€45.48). For Kalmar Oyj the two are €6.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kalmar Oyj worth?
The market values Kalmar Oyj at about €2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €39.20; our models calculate a fair value of €45.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KALMAR?
Our models span a range for Kalmar Oyj: cautious scenario €32.14, base €45.48, optimistic €59.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €39.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KALMAR?
Kalmar Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €45.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kalmar Oyj (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.9%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KALMAR from its 52-week high?
Kalmar Oyj trades at €39.20, about 21% below its 52-week high of €49.71 and 20% above the low of €32.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €45.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kalmar Oyj?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kalmar Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €39.20, calculated fair value €45.48 (+16%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KALMAR calculated?
We run Kalmar Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €45.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kalmar Oyj currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €39.20. Our model-based fair value is €45.48, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kalmar Oyj right now?
A fairly wide model range (€32.14 to €59.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kalmar Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The market capitalisation of Kalmar Oyj is €2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kalmar Oyj is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Earnings per share at Kalmar Oyj are €2.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The dividend yield of Kalmar Oyj is 2.8% (payout 42.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The net margin of Kalmar Oyj is 9.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kalmar Oyj is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kalmar Oyj is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
The operating margin of Kalmar Oyj is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Revenue at Kalmar Oyj is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR)?
Earnings per share at Kalmar Oyj are growing +15.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR) carry?
The net debt of Kalmar Oyj is €89.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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