Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. TRY 12.33, price TRY 9.37, upside +31.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.35 TRY – 18.53 TRY · fair‑value band 11.12 TRY – 13.39 TRY · the 9.37 TRY price screens below the 12.33 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the production and sale of automotives and related vehicles, and spare parts in Turkey and internationally. It operates through Karsan Branded Products and Spare Parts and other branded sales segments.
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Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the production and sale of automotives and related vehicles, and spare parts in Turkey and internationally. It operates through Karsan Branded Products and Spare Parts and other branded sales segments. The company provides passenger cars, trucks, minibuses, buses, hydrogen buses, and electric and diesel buses. It also offers after-sales, marketing, and financial leasing services. The company sells its products under the JEST, ATAK, and STAR brand names. Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Bursa, Turkey. The company operates as a subsidiary of Kiraca Holding AS.
Stock analysis
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) currently trades at 9.37 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.33 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 52.41 TRY per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the 9.37 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 4.38 TRY, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11.12 TRY (bear) to 13.39 TRY (bull), the price of 9.37 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 16.6B TRL in FY2025 versus 2.1B TRL in FY2021, a compound +67.7%/yr. Reported net income was 179M TRL in FY2025, compounding +16.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.4B TRY (≈ $172M) · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) 0.6900 TRY · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 32%, KARSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 11.12 TRYFair Value 12.33 TRYBull 13.39 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5104 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+54.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.1% a year for the price.
Compare Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+31.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.0% · Above median
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth139.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KARSN
Frequently asked questions
Is Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.33 TRY versus a price of 9.37 TRY, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KARSN?
Our model-based fair value for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 12.33 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.37 TRY.
What is the quality score of KARSN?
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.33 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.12 TRY, optimistic scenario 13.39 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.33 TRY, about +32% upside versus a price of 9.37 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 11.12 TRY, optimistic scenario 13.39 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 19.4B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +57.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KARSN use?
Our models discount Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. at 16.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. that is +27.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. grew +57.3 % a year. The price currently implies +27.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (+27.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.80 %: that much free cash flow Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. it is 12.33 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9.37 TRY. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KARSN trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.37 TRY, fair value 12.33 TRY, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KARSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.37 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12.33 TRY). For Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. the two are 2.96 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. worth?
The market values Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. at about 8.4B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9.37 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 12.33 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KARSN?
Our models span a range for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S.: cautious scenario 11.12 TRY, base 12.33 TRY, optimistic 13.39 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9.37 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KARSN?
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 12.33 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of KARSN?
The PEG ratio of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KARSN from its 52-week high?
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. trades at 9.37 TRY, about 43% below its 52-week high of 16.51 TRY and 4% above the low of 9.03 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12.33 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9.37 TRY, calculated fair value 12.33 TRY (+32%), Quality Score 46/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KARSN calculated?
We run Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12.33 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 9.37 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 12.33 TRY, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (11.12 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The market capitalisation of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 8.4B TRY (≈ $172M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Earnings per share at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. are 0.6900 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The net margin of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
The operating margin of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Revenue at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is growing +140% versus a year earlier (3y avg +77.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN)?
Earnings per share at Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. are growing −30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. (KARSN) carry?
The net debt of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. is 7.2B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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