Kayseri Seker Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (KAYSE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · TR · Market cap 11.3B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated today
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 163% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (22/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (7.40 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (7.40 TRY to 14.80 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range 3.52 TRY – 12.62 TRY · fair‑value band 7.40 TRY – 14.80 TRY · the 3.77 TRY price screens below the 9.92 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kayseri Seker Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (KAYSE) currently trades at 3.77 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.92 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 163.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kayseri Seker Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi generated revenue of 24.3B TRY at a net margin of -18.9%. Revenue declined 18.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.8%. Net debt stands at 15.3B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 7.40 TRY (bear case) to 14.80 TRY (bull case); at 3.77 TRY, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at 163%, KAYSE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kayseri Seker Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi engages in the sugar business in Turkey. The company operates in two segments, Sugar Production Activities and Other Activities. It is involved in the production of crystal sugar from beet under the Kayseri Seker brand name. The company was incorporated in 1955 and is based in Kayseri, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Kayseri Seker Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi reported revenue of 24.4B TRY in FY2026 versus 5.1B TRY in FY2022, a compound +47.7%/yr. Reported net income was −4.6B TRY in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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