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KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A $42.14, price $85.00, upside -50.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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KP
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A
KGHPF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $42.14 · Strongly overvalued (−50.4%)
!Quality 55/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.74 – $107.55 · fair‑value band $37.68 – $54.07 · the $85.00 price screens above the $42.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally.
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KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products. It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.
Stock analysis
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF) currently trades at $85.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.14, 50.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $70.89 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the $85.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.64, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $37.68 (bear) to $54.07 (bull), the price of $85.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A reported revenue of 36.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 29.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.3B · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) $9.43 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −50%, KGHPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $37.68
Fair Value $42.14
Bull $54.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.13 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$38.50
$43.96
$58.38
76
EPV
$23.68
$28.48
$32.68
74
Owner Earnings
$3.37
$7.78
$14.36
72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$3.37
$7.78
$14.36
72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$32.21
$92.16
$121.50
65
Lynch FV
$18.90
$27.00
$35.10
61
PEG = 1.0
$18.90
$27.00
$35.10
57
EPV
$23.68
$28.48
$32.68
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.54
$7.36
$11.67
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.54
$5.64
$7.72
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$60.39
$80.52
$100.65
63
P/S Multiple
$52.56
$70.07
$87.59
58
P/B Multiple
$60.39
$80.52
$100.65
55
EV/EBIT
$49.84
$68.16
$86.49
66
EV/EBITDA
$56.93
$77.62
$98.30
67
EV/Revenue
$42.51
$62.93
$83.35
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$21.09
$28.25
$42.17
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$38.50
$43.96
$58.38
76
ROIC Compounder
$23.68
$28.48
$32.68
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$49.62
$70.89
$92.15
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
’14
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.4% vs 4.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
KGHPF screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGHPF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Net Profit Surges Tenfold on ...
- KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGHPF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial ...
- How Recent Analyst Upgrades Are Rewriting the Story for KGHM Polska Miedz
- Why The Narrative Around KGHM Polska Miedz Is Shifting Amid Analyst Upgrades and Fresh Insights
Compare KGHM Polska Miedz S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $202.64 | $157.34 | −22% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $71.96 | $16.47 | −77% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$45.54 | C$20.04 | −56% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥42.40 | ¥25.87 | −39% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$33.93 | C$37.32 | +10% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$8.55 | HK$9.40 | +10% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | $26.87 | $21.22 | −21% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.89 | ¥2.16 | −63% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.54 | C$9.74 | −33% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$15.49 | HK$13.82 | −11% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.14 versus a price of $85.00, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGHPF?
Our model-based fair value for KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is $42.14 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $85.00.
What is the quality score of KGHPF?
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.14 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.68, optimistic scenario $54.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KGHM Polska Miedz S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.14, about −50% upside versus a price of $85.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $37.68, optimistic scenario $54.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.0B PLN (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does KGHM Polska Miedz S.A pay a dividend?
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KGHM Polska Miedz S.A it is $42.14 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $85.00. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KGHM Polska Miedz S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, KGHPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $85.00, fair value $42.14, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGHPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($85.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.14). For KGHM Polska Miedz S.A the two are $42.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KGHM Polska Miedz S.A worth?
The market values KGHM Polska Miedz S.A at about $20.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $85.00; our models calculate a fair value of $42.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGHPF?
Our models span a range for KGHM Polska Miedz S.A: cautious scenario $37.68, base $42.14, optimistic $54.07 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $85.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGHPF?
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGHPF from its 52-week high?
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A trades at $85.00, about 21% below its 52-week high of $107.55 and 106% above the low of $41.19 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KGHM Polska Miedz S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KGHM Polska Miedz S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $85.00, calculated fair value $42.14 (−50%), Quality Score 55/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGHPF calculated?
We run KGHM Polska Miedz S.A through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. KGHM Polska Miedz S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $85.00. Our model-based fair value is $42.14, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KGHM Polska Miedz S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($54.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The market capitalisation of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is $20.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Earnings per share at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A are $9.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The dividend yield of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 1.5% (payout 13.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The net margin of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Revenue at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF)?
Earnings per share at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A are growing +969% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF) generate?
The free cash flow of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is −1.5B PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does KGHM Polska Miedz S.A (KGHPF) carry?
The net debt of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A is 5.4B PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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