Kion Group AG (KGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Kion Group AG €43.59, price €39.97, upside +9.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.25 – €94.42 · fair‑value band €39.60 – €53.43 · the €39.97 price screens below the €43.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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KION GROUP AG provides industrial trucks and supply chain solutions in Western and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Central and South America, China, and the rest of the Asia Pacific. It operates through Industrial Trucks & Services; and Supply Chain Solutions segments.
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KION GROUP AG provides industrial trucks and supply chain solutions in Western and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Central and South America, China, and the rest of the Asia Pacific. It operates through Industrial Trucks & Services; and Supply Chain Solutions segments. The company offers forklift and heavy trucks, counterbalance trucks with electric drive and internal combustion engine, intralogistics systems, components and spare parts, narrow aisle trucks, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial and warehouse trucks under the Linde, STILL, Baoli, Fenwick, and OM brands. It also leases and rents industrial trucks and related equipment; and provides maintenance and repair services, fleet management solutions, driver assistance systems, and service options, as well as finance solutions. In addition, the company provides integrated technology and software solutions, automated guided vehicle systems, warehouse automation solutions, palletizers, storage and picking equipment, automated storage and retrieval systems, system components and racking, sorters, and conveyors under the Dematic brand. Further, it offers logistics solutions. The company was formerly known as KION Holding 1 GmbH. KION GROUP AG was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Stock analysis
Kion Group AG (KGX) currently trades at €39.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €43.59, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €75.90 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the €39.97 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €10.86, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €39.60 (bear) to €53.43 (bull), the price of €39.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kion Group AG reported revenue of €11.3B in FY2025 versus €10.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was €230M in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €5.2B · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) €2.93 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 9%, KGX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €39.60Fair Value €43.59Bull €53.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.5% vs −2.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+9.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kion Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGX
Frequently asked questions
Is Kion Group AG (KGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €43.59 versus a price of €39.97, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KGX?
Our model-based fair value for Kion Group AG is €43.59 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €39.97.
What is the quality score of KGX?
Kion Group AG has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €43.59 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €39.60, optimistic scenario €53.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kion Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €43.59, about +9% upside versus a price of €39.97 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €39.60, optimistic scenario €53.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Kion Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Kion Group AG pay a dividend?
Kion Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kion Group AG (KGX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kion Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGX use?
Our models discount Kion Group AG at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.05, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kion Group AG that is -2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kion Group AG (KGX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kion Group AG grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies -2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kion Group AG (KGX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kion Group AG (-2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.39 %: that much free cash flow Kion Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kion Group AG it is €43.59 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €39.97. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kion Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KGX trades below its calculated fair value: price €39.97, fair value €43.59, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€39.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€43.59). For Kion Group AG the two are €3.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kion Group AG worth?
The market values Kion Group AG at about €5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €39.97; our models calculate a fair value of €43.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGX?
Our models span a range for Kion Group AG: cautious scenario €39.60, base €43.59, optimistic €53.43 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €39.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGX?
Kion Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €43.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of KGX?
The PEG ratio of Kion Group AG is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kion Group AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGX from its 52-week high?
Kion Group AG trades at €39.97, about 42% below its 52-week high of €69.26 and 11% above the low of €36.08 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €43.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kion Group AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kion Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €39.97, calculated fair value €43.59 (+9%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGX calculated?
We run Kion Group AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €43.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Kion Group AG currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was €39.97. Our model-based fair value is €43.59, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kion Group AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Kion Group AG (KGX) come from?
Earnings per share at Kion Group AG grew +0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kion Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The market capitalisation of Kion Group AG is €5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kion Group AG is 0.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Earnings per share at Kion Group AG are €2.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The dividend yield of Kion Group AG is 1.6% (payout 21.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The net margin of Kion Group AG is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kion Group AG is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kion Group AG is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kion Group AG (KGX)?
The operating margin of Kion Group AG is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Revenue at Kion Group AG is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kion Group AG (KGX)?
Earnings per share at Kion Group AG are growing +18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kion Group AG (KGX) carry?
The net debt of Kion Group AG is €7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026