Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 91.0B ZAC
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, trading 69% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R536.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (R536.58 to R969.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R234.93 – R620.94 · fair‑value band R536.58 – R969.34 · the R238.08 price screens below the R775.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) currently trades at R238.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R775.47, implying the stock looks roughly 225.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd generated revenue of 70.1B ZAR at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 14.8B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R536.58 (bear case) to R969.34 (bull case); at R238.08, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at 226%, KIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R1,002) versus Asset-Based (R114.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments.
Full company description
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments. The company produces iron ore at its flagship Sishen mine located near the town of Kathu in the Northern Cape province; and its Kolomela mine located near Postmasburg in the Northern Cape province. It is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape province; and provision of iron ore logistics services through rail, as well as shipping services. The company exports its products to China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, rest of Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited is a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd reported revenue of R72.1B in FY2025 versus R102B in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was R14.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Steel · 402 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $271.81 | $116.05 | -57% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.18 | €53.35 | -17% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | -14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $228.68 | $127.14 | -44% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | -16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.20 | ₹145.39 | -22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $427.11 | $217.81 | -49% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $57.09 | $83.53 | +46% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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