Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd ZAR 668, price ZAR 223, upside +200.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R218.97 – R620.94 · fair‑value band R432.40 – R913.64 · the R222.78 price screens below the R668.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments.
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Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments. The company produces iron ore at its flagship Sishen mine located near the town of Kathu in the Northern Cape province; and its Kolomela mine located near Postmasburg in the Northern Cape province. It is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape province; and provision of iron ore logistics services through rail, as well as shipping services. The company exports its products to China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, rest of Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited is a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Stock analysis
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) currently trades at R222.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R668.34, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R865.76 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the R222.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R114.97, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R432.40 (bear) to R913.64 (bull), the price of R222.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd reported revenue of 72.1B ZAR in FY2025 versus 102B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 14.6B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 71.6B ZAC · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) R36.23 · Dividend yield 10.5% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 39.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 200%, KIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R432.40Fair Value R668.34Bull R913.64
Price R222.78 · Upside +200.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.00 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.5% vs 5.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 38%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.7% a year for the price and −5.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)10.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kumba Iron Ore Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KIO
Frequently asked questions
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R668.34 versus a price of R222.78, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KIO?
Our model-based fair value for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is R668.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R222.78.
What is the quality score of KIO?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R668.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R432.40, optimistic scenario R913.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kumba Iron Ore Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R668.34, about +200% upside versus a price of R222.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R432.40, optimistic scenario R913.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 66.4B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Kumba Iron Ore Ltd pay a dividend?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KIO use?
Our models discount Kumba Iron Ore Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kumba Iron Ore Ltd that is -18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies -18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (-18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.84 %: that much free cash flow Kumba Iron Ore Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kumba Iron Ore Ltd it is R668.34 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R222.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, KIO trades below its calculated fair value: price R222.78, fair value R668.34, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R222.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R668.34). For Kumba Iron Ore Ltd the two are R445.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd worth?
The market values Kumba Iron Ore Ltd at about 71.6B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R222.78; our models calculate a fair value of R668.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KIO?
Our models span a range for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd: cautious scenario R432.40, base R668.34, optimistic R913.64 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R222.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KIO?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R668.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 295.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of KIO?
The PEG ratio of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 295.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 21.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KIO from its 52-week high?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd trades at R222.78, about 43% below its 52-week high of R388.66 and 2% above the low of R218.97 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R668.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kumba Iron Ore Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R222.78, calculated fair value R668.34 (+200%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KIO calculated?
We run Kumba Iron Ore Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R668.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kumba Iron Ore Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was R222.78. Our model-based fair value is R668.34, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kumba Iron Ore Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R432.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R432.40 to R913.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) come from?
Earnings per share at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd grew +11.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The market capitalisation of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 71.6B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Earnings per share at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd are R36.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The dividend yield of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 10.5% (payout 64.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The net margin of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 39.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
The operating margin of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Revenue at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd is growing −10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO)?
Earnings per share at Kumba Iron Ore Ltd are growing −41.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIO) hold?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd holds more cash than debt, 14.8B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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