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Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi TRY 1.60, price TRY 2.88, upside -44.4%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · TR

KM Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi

KOCMT · IS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 1.60 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−44.4%)
!Quality 29/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +22.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

6.19 TRY 2.09 TRY Fair Value 1.60 TRY May 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

28‑month range 2.09 TRY – 6.19 TRY · fair‑value band 1.16 TRY – 2.06 TRY · the 2.88 TRY price screens above the 1.60 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi engages in the production and sales of metal billets, ribbed reinforced concrete bars, rebar, and construction iron in Turkey. It produces scrap metal. The company was formerly known as Koç Haddecilik Tekstil Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi in June 2016.

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Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi engages in the production and sales of metal billets, ribbed reinforced concrete bars, rebar, and construction iron in Turkey. It produces scrap metal. The company was formerly known as Koç Haddecilik Tekstil Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi in June 2016. Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1993 and is based in Payas, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT) currently trades at 2.88 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.60 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 1.16 TRY (bear) to 2.06 TRY (bull), the price of 2.88 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi reported revenue of 19.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 18.0B TRY in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was −982M TRY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 14.0B TRY (≈ $286M) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) 0.4600 TRY · Net margin −4.9% · Return on equity −6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 0.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −44%, KOCMT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 1.16 TRY Fair Value 1.60 TRY Bull 2.06 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3403 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA 1.45 TRY 1.67 TRY 1.90 TRY 67
NCAV (Graham) 2.36 TRY 3.17 TRY 4.73 TRY 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 1.45 TRY 1.67 TRY 1.90 TRY 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.36 TRY 3.17 TRY 4.73 TRY 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.0% (2021) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

KOCMT screens 80% overvalued. Compare with ATI Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 261 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −44.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −4.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −70.9% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ATI Inc ATI $185.48 $46.88 −75%
Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS $396.84 $140.67 −65%
Mueller Industries, Inc MLI $60.52 $59.41 −2%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,008 ₹398.69 −80%
Aurubis AG NDA €167.90 €109.89 −35%
Commercial Metals Company CMC $65.73 $13.01 −80%
China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 ¥8.66 ¥11.28 +30%
JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 ¥25.29 ¥5.04 −80%
Viohalco S.A VIO €17.00 €15.05 −11%
Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 ¥51.33 ¥24.43 −52%

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Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi · Fair Value
1.60 TRY −80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KOCMT

Frequently asked questions

Is Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.60 TRY versus a price of 2.88 TRY, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KOCMT?
Our model-based fair value for Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 1.60 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.88 TRY.
What is the quality score of KOCMT?
Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.60 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.16 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.06 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.60 TRY, about −44% upside versus a price of 2.88 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.16 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.06 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.6B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi it is 1.60 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 2.88 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KOCMT trades above its calculated fair value: price 2.88 TRY, fair value 1.60 TRY, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KOCMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.88 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.60 TRY). For Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi the two are 1.28 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi worth?
The market values Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi at about 14.0B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 2.88 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.60 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KOCMT?
Our models span a range for Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi: cautious scenario 1.16 TRY, base 1.60 TRY, optimistic 2.06 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 2.88 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KOCMT?
Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.60 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KOCMT from its 52-week high?
Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi trades at 2.88 TRY, about 53% below its 52-week high of 6.19 TRY and 20% above the low of 2.40 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.60 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 2.88 TRY, calculated fair value 1.60 TRY (−44%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KOCMT calculated?
We run Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.60 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 2.88 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.60 TRY, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.06 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi

How large is the market capitalisation of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The market capitalisation of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 14.0B TRY (≈ $286M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Earnings per share at Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi are 0.4600 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The net margin of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is −4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is −6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
The operating margin of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT)?
Revenue at Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is growing −70.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT) generate?
The free cash flow of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is −1.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi (KOCMT) carry?
The net debt of Koç Metalürji Anonim Sirketi is 223M TRY (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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