Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Karman Holdings Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.5B · ISIN US4859241048
At a glance
KHKarman Holdings Inc.KRMN · US
Price$34.39
Fair Value$2.75
Upside−92.0% ⚠
Quality38/100
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 1,150% above our fair value of $2.75.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Karman Holdings Inc. is $2.75 per share against a price of $34.39, so the fair value sits 92% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +27.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.7% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: LowRange $2.06 to $4.15
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −44.5% over the past month.
This is the short version. In the app for Karman Holdings Inc.:
Watch Karman Holdings Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $4.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (19 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range $26.77 – $115.29 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $4.15 · the $34.39 price screens above the $2.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) currently trades at $34.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 1,150.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.39 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $34.39 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.11, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Karman Holdings Inc. generated revenue of $523M at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 51.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $553M. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: $2.06 (bear) to $4.15 (bull), the price of $34.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −92%, KRMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1601 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.0200 to $7.87). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence$2.14$2.10$1.8973
EPV$0.4800$1.11$1.6569
EV/EBITDA$5.03$7.87$10.7066
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$0.9700$6.39$17.3562
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$0.8900$6.21$8.7260
Lynch FV$2.56$3.66$4.7658
PEG = 1.0$2.56$3.66$4.7655
EPV$0.4800$1.11$1.6569
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$0.0100$0.0200$0.030064
DDM Multi-Stage$0.0100$0.0200$0.020065
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.06$2.75$3.4463
P/S Multiple$1.67$2.23$2.7858
P/B Multiple$1.67$2.23$2.7855
EV/EBIT$3.54$5.88$8.2164
EV/EBITDA$5.03$7.87$10.7066
EV/Revenue$1.00$2.92$4.8450
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.44$1.93$2.8954
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence$2.14$2.10$1.8973
ROIC Compounder$0.4800$1.11$1.6566
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$3.20$4.57$5.9465
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($6.39) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (73).
Notify me when KRMN reaches fair value
Put KRMN on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio143.3
P/S ratio5.28P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.2400price ÷ EPS = P/E 143.3
Net margin3.7%FY2025
Return on equity7.9%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)6.1%avg 4y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin15.5%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$523MTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+51.0%3y avg +27.7%
EPS growth (YoY)+483%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$42.5MFY2025
Net debt$553MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality38/100
Of which business quality 36
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8
Profitability27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance81
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems in the United States. The company offers payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems.
Full company description
Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems in the United States. The company offers payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. It serves its products to hypersonics and strategic missile defense, tactical missile and integrated defense systems, and space and launch markets. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Huntington Beach, California. Karman Holdings Inc. operates as a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Karman Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $472M in FY2025 versus $226M in FY2022, a compound +27.7%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$472M
Latest YoY
+36.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.7%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +58.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+58.5%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.0% (2022) → 15.5% (2025) · rising
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 103% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 47
PAST32· sector 36
HEALTH35· sector 93
DIVIDEND0· sector 16
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
WeaponsDefense
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
Is Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.75 versus a price of $34.39, about −92% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KRMN?
Our model-based fair value for Karman Holdings Inc. is $2.75 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.39.
What is the quality score of KRMN?
Karman Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.75 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karman Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.75, about −92% upside versus a price of $34.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Karman Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $523M (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KRMN?
The net profit margin of Karman Holdings Inc. is about 5.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What is the intrinsic value of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karman Holdings Inc. it is $2.75 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of $34.39. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Karman Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, KRMN trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.39, fair value $2.75, a gap of about −92% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KRMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.75). For Karman Holdings Inc. the two are $31.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karman Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Karman Holdings Inc. at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is $34.39; our models calculate a fair value of $2.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KRMN?
Our models span a range for Karman Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $2.06, base $2.75, optimistic $4.15 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price $34.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KRMN?
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 143.3 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 16.9, P/S 12.4, EV/EBITDA 50.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karman Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KRMN from its 52-week high?
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at $34.39, about 71% below its 52-week high of $118.38 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karman Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karman Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price $34.39, calculated fair value $2.75 (−92%), Quality Score 38/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KRMN calculated?
We run Karman Holdings Inc. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Karman Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
Free · no account needed
Watch Karman Holdings Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts Karman Holdings Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Karman Holdings Inc.
KRMN · US