Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Karman Holdings Inc. stock $3.66, price $36.65, upside -90.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Our calculation puts a fair price 90% below what the stock costs today.
Expensive Growth(revenue 3y +27.7 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 6.3% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Fair value $3.66 · Strongly overvalued (−90.0%)
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers(2/11)
Narrow moat43/100
Thin data
🚩Price drop: Short-seller report on controls and acquisition accounting with overvalued models🚩AI analysis: Short-seller report on weak internal controls and acquisition accountingStructural break
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range $26.77 – $115.29 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $4.76 · the $36.65 price screens above the $3.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems in the United States. The company offers payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems.
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It serves its products to hypersonics and strategic missile defense, tactical missile and integrated defense systems, and space and launch markets. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Huntington Beach, California.
Karman Holdings Inc. operates as a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.
Stock analysis
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) currently trades at $36.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.66, 90.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.30 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $36.65 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.00, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.06 (bear) to $4.76 (bull), the price of $36.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Karman Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $472M in FY2025 versus $226M in FY2022, a compound +27.7%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 130.9 · P/S ratio 8.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −90%, KRMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0200 to $7.30). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$2.06Fair Value $3.66Bull$4.76
Price $36.65 · Upside -90.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2294 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+99.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+99.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 16%
2025 sits 103% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Robust revenue growth and expanding defense backlog contrast with weak profitability, negative cash flows and high debt.
Main risk: Weak internal controls and questionable acquisition accounting could undermine financial reporting reliability.
Karman keeps posting strong revenue gains and a growing backlog in missile, defense and space work. At the same time a short-seller report flagged weak internal controls and questions around how acquisitions are accounted for. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the operational momentum overcome those governance concerns, or will the scrutiny shape how the results are valued?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−90.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)20.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)130.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B12.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)8.24× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA34.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)35· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Karman Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KRMN
Frequently asked questions
Is Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.66 versus a price of $36.65, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KRMN?
Our model-based fair value for Karman Holdings Inc. is $3.66 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.65.
What is the quality score of KRMN?
Karman Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.66 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karman Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.66, about −90% upside versus a price of $36.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Karman Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $590M (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karman Holdings Inc. it is $3.66 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $36.65. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Karman Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, KRMN trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.65, fair value $3.66, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KRMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.66). For Karman Holdings Inc. the two are $32.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karman Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Karman Holdings Inc. at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.65; our models calculate a fair value of $3.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KRMN?
Our models span a range for Karman Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $2.06, base $3.66, optimistic $4.76 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $36.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KRMN?
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 130.9 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.7, P/S 8.2, EV/EBITDA 34.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karman Holdings Inc. (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KRMN from its 52-week high?
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at $36.65, about 68% below its 52-week high of $115.29 and 22% above the low of $30.14 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karman Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Safran SA, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karman Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $36.65, calculated fair value $3.66 (−90%), Quality Score 38/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KRMN calculated?
We run Karman Holdings Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Karman Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $36.65. Our model-based fair value is $3.66, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Karman Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $4.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Karman Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The market capitalisation of Karman Holdings Inc. is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Karman Holdings Inc. is 8.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Earnings per share at Karman Holdings Inc. are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 130.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The net margin of Karman Holdings Inc. is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Karman Holdings Inc. is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Karman Holdings Inc. is 6.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
The operating margin of Karman Holdings Inc. is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Revenue at Karman Holdings Inc. is growing +58.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)?
Earnings per share at Karman Holdings Inc. are growing +112% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) generate?
The free cash flow of Karman Holdings Inc. is −$42.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) carry?
The net debt of Karman Holdings Inc. is $553M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 23, 2026