Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions stock $2.87, price $35.10, that is 91.8% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.06 – $130.72 · fair‑value band $2.77 – $2.96 · the $35.10 price screens above the $2.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., a technology company, provides technology, hardware, products, system, and software for the defense, national security, and commercial markets in the United States, other North America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and Internationally.
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The company operates through Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems segments.
It offers virtualized ground systems for satellites and space vehicles, including software for command and control, telemetry, and tracking and control; jet powered unmanned aerial drone systems and hypersonic vehicles and rocket systems; propulsion systems for drones, missiles, loitering munitions, supersonic systems, spacecraft and launch systems, command, control, communication, computing, combat, and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance; and microwave electronic products for missile, radar, missile defense, space, and satellite; and counter unmanned aircraft systems, directed energy, communication and other systems, and virtual and augmented reality training systems for the warfighter.
The company primarily serves national security-related agencies, the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligence and classified agencies, international government agencies, and domestic and international commercial customers.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. was formerly known as Wireless Facilities, Inc. and changed its name to Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. in August 1999. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) currently trades at $35.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.87, 92% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $4.65 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $35.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.06, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.77 (bear) to $2.96 (bull), the price of $35.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $812M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $22.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.7B Mid · P/E ratio 292.5 · P/S ratio 4.05 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.9%.
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −92%, KTOS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.25 to $32.19). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$2.77Fair Value $2.87Bull$2.96
Price $35.10 · Downside -91.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1026 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 11 officers or directors sold shares worth $31.8M and none bought.
SaleDeanna H LundEVP & CFO, Director11× since Dec 1, 2025: 109,000 shares, avg. $68.43$7.5MOct 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePhillip D CarraiPresident, STC Division12× since Nov 17, 2025: 97,000 shares, avg. $68.40$6.6MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMarie MendozaSVP & General Counsel11× since Nov 17, 2025: 15,206 shares, avg. $75.13$1.1MSep 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven S. FendleyPresident, US Division11× since Nov 24, 2025: 105,000 shares, avg. $65.20$6.8MAug 24, 2026
SaleScot B JarvisDirector8× since Jan 15, 2026: 45,417 shares, avg. $87.06$4.0MAug 18, 2026
SaleEric M DemarcoPresident & CEO, Director4× since Dec 1, 2025: 1,100,000 shares, avg. $75.16$82.7MAug 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid M CarterPresident, DRSS Division9× since Dec 5, 2025: 44,123 shares, avg. $77.40$3.4MAug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStacey G RockPresident, KTT Division8× since Dec 18, 2025: 55,858 shares, avg. $87.87$4.9MJun 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonah AdelmanPresident, ME Division2× since Nov 25, 2025: 61,348 shares, avg. $65.74$4.0MMay 26, 2026
SaleBobbi DoorenbosDirector2,500 shares at $57.29$143,225May 26, 2026
Plus 6 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+33.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.2% vs −9.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong backlog and bookings on rising defense demand form the main strength, while persistent cash burn during capacity expansion remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Better-capitalized competitors such as Anduril, General Atomics and Northrop Grumman could win Collaborative Combat Aircraft contracts or force price reductions on Kratos' unmanned systems, squeezing margins in its core attritable aircraft business.
Bull case: Kratos could deepen partnerships with primes like Northrop Grumman and expand into international and hypersonic test-bed programs to offset any lost US unmanned bids while leveraging its cost and speed advantages.
Bear case: If rivals capture key CCA production slots and government funding faces prolonged delays, Kratos could see its unmanned systems backlog stagnate and fixed-price contract margins erode further amid sustained cash burn.
Kratos reports record backlog and strong bookings on rising defense demand, yet continues to burn cash while expanding hypersonic and drone production capacity. The company guides for ongoing free-cash-flow usage through 2027 even as revenues scale. Our models view the shares as overvalued. Will the investments translate into sustained positive cash flow before growth expectations moderate?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−91.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)292.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.34× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.05× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA70.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG36.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.87 versus a price of $35.10, about 92% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KTOS?
Our model-based fair value for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is $2.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.10.
What is the quality score of KTOS?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.77, optimistic scenario $2.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.87, about 92% lower versus a price of $35.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.77, optimistic scenario $2.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kratos Defense & Security Solutions it is $2.87 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $35.10. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, KTOS trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.10, fair value $2.87, a gap of about −92% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KTOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.87). For Kratos Defense & Security Solutions the two are $32.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions worth?
The market values Kratos Defense & Security Solutions at about $6.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $35.10; our models calculate a fair value of $2.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KTOS?
Our models span a range for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions: cautious scenario $2.77, base $2.87, optimistic $2.96 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $35.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KTOS?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 292.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.87 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 167.1 (reported for FY2025: 270.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 290.6. Other multiples: PEG 36.4, P/B 3.3, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 70.8.
What is the PEG ratio of KTOS?
The PEG ratio of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is 36.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KTOS from its 52-week high?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions trades at $35.10, about 73% below its 52-week high of $130.72 and 5% above the low of $33.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kratos Defense & Security Solutions?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $35.10, calculated fair value $2.87 (−92%), Quality Score 25/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KTOS calculated?
We run Kratos Defense & Security Solutions through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $35.10. Our model-based fair value is $2.87, about 92% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band ($2.77 to $2.96), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
How large is the market capitalisation of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The market capitalisation of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is $6.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is 4.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Earnings per share at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 292.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The net margin of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is 1.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
The operating margin of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Revenue at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is growing +35.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)?
Earnings per share at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions are growing +7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) generate?
The free cash flow of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is −$137M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) hold?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions holds more cash than debt, $381M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026
