Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $187B
Kioxia Holdings
KXIAY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.89 to $22.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (10 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $4.13 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $9.89 – $22.34 · the $38.75 price screens above the $17.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) currently trades at $38.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.87, implying the stock looks roughly 53.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kioxia Holdings generated revenue of $2.3T at a net margin of 23.7%. Revenue grew 188.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.9%. Net debt stands at ¥577B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.89 (bear case) to $22.34 (bull case); at $38.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -54%, KXIAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($32.26) versus Asset-Based ($1.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kioxia Holdings Corporation engages in research, development, manufacturing, sales, and other services of memory and related products for solid state drives (SSDs) and storage and smart devices in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers flash memory, SSDs, SD memory cards, and other retail products.
Full company description
Kioxia Holdings Corporation engages in research, development, manufacturing, sales, and other services of memory and related products for solid state drives (SSDs) and storage and smart devices in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers flash memory, SSDs, SD memory cards, and other retail products. It is also involved in the product and software development of SSD products; marketing of memory and SSD products; production management of subcontracted production in the post-process of memory; production and distribution of memory and photomask for semiconductor products; energy management business; and entrusted engineering work of CIM developments, as well as provides cleaning and health keeping for development center, and customer support services. The company was formerly known as Toshiba Memory Holdings Corporation and changed its name to Kioxia Holdings Corporation in October 2019. Kioxia Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2024 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Kioxia Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2024, a compound +47.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥554B in FY2026.
KXIAY screens 54% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- China’s YMTC overtakes Kioxia, Micron in global NAND shipments: Counterpoint
- Kioxia Stock Surges 700% as AI Chip Demand Drives Profit Growth
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 327 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $225.01 | $98.98 | -56% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $429.15 | $291.42 | -32% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €366.85 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$43.68 | C$6.23 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,504,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €428.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$54.79 | C$11.71 | -79% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 4,015 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -61% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,024,000 KRW | 1,204,862 KRW | +18% |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 | HK$515.00 | HK$274.86 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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