Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kioxia Holdings $37.10, price $35.98, upside +3.1%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range $3.95 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $18.94 – $51.50 · the $35.98 price screens below the $37.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Kioxia Holdings Corporation engages in research, development, manufacturing, sales, and other services of memory and related products for solid state drives (SSDs) and storage and smart devices in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers flash memory, SSDs, SD memory cards, and other retail products.
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Kioxia Holdings Corporation engages in research, development, manufacturing, sales, and other services of memory and related products for solid state drives (SSDs) and storage and smart devices in Japan, North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers flash memory, SSDs, SD memory cards, and other retail products. It is also involved in the product and software development of SSD products; marketing of memory and SSD products; production management of subcontracted production in the post-process of memory; production and distribution of memory and photomask for semiconductor products; energy management business; and entrusted engineering work of CIM developments, as well as provides cleaning and health keeping for development center, and customer support services. The company was formerly known as Toshiba Memory Holdings Corporation and changed its name to Kioxia Holdings Corporation in October 2019. Kioxia Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) currently trades at $35.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.34 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $35.98 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.25, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.94 (bear) to $51.50 (bull), the price of $35.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kioxia Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2024, a compound +47.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥554B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $191B · P/E ratio 56.2 · P/S ratio 13.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Net margin 23.7% · Return on equity 87.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7% · Operating margin 71.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 811% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 3%, KXIAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.94Fair Value $37.10Bull $51.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3261 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 329 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+2.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)87.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets34.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)36.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)71.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth415.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kioxia Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KXIAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.10 versus a price of $35.98, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KXIAY?
Our model-based fair value for Kioxia Holdings is $37.10 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.98.
What is the quality score of KXIAY?
Kioxia Holdings has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.10 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.94, optimistic scenario $51.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kioxia Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.10, about +3% upside versus a price of $35.98 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $18.94, optimistic scenario $51.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Kioxia Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kioxia Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +47.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KXIAY use?
Our models discount Kioxia Holdings at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kioxia Holdings that is -2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Kioxia Holdings grew +47.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kioxia Holdings (-2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.73 %: that much free cash flow Kioxia Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kioxia Holdings it is $37.10 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $35.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kioxia Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, KXIAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.98, fair value $37.10, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KXIAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.10). For Kioxia Holdings the two are $1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kioxia Holdings worth?
The market values Kioxia Holdings at about $191B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $35.98; our models calculate a fair value of $37.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KXIAY?
Our models span a range for Kioxia Holdings: cautious scenario $18.94, base $37.10, optimistic $51.50 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $35.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KXIAY?
Kioxia Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 22.2, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of KXIAY?
The PEG ratio of Kioxia Holdings is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kioxia Holdings (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 87.1%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KXIAY from its 52-week high?
Kioxia Holdings trades at $35.98, about 47% below its 52-week high of $67.38 and 811% above the low of $3.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kioxia Holdings?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kioxia Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $35.98, calculated fair value $37.10 (+3%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KXIAY calculated?
We run Kioxia Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kioxia Holdings currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $35.98. Our model-based fair value is $37.10, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kioxia Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($18.94 to $51.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Kioxia Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The market capitalisation of Kioxia Holdings is $191B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kioxia Holdings is 13.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Earnings per share at Kioxia Holdings are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The net margin of Kioxia Holdings is 23.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kioxia Holdings is 87.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kioxia Holdings is 12.7% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
The operating margin of Kioxia Holdings is 71.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Revenue at Kioxia Holdings is growing +416% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY)?
Earnings per share at Kioxia Holdings are growing +44.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) carry?
The net debt of Kioxia Holdings is ¥577B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026