Lucid Group Inc (LCID) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Lucid Group Inc $1.04, price $4.32, upside -76.0%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.04 – $555.20 · fair‑value band $0.7735 – $1.55 · the $4.32 price screens above the $1.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lucid Group, Inc., a technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles (EV), EV powertrains, and battery systems. The company provides Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity SUV. It also designs and develops proprietary software in-house for Lucid vehicles.
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Lucid Group, Inc., a technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles (EV), EV powertrains, and battery systems. The company provides Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity SUV. It also designs and develops proprietary software in-house for Lucid vehicles. The company sells vehicles directly to consumers through its retail sales network and direct online sales, including Lucid Financial Services. The company is headquartered in Newark, California. Lucid Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Ayar Third Investment Company.
Stock analysis
Lucid Group Inc (LCID) currently trades at $4.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04, implying the stock looks roughly 316.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.7735 (bear) to $1.55 (bull), the price of $4.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lucid Group Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $27.1M in FY2021, a compound +165.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $−12.65 · Net margin −249% · Return on equity −126% · Return on assets (EBIT) −32.4% · Operating margin −261% · Revenue (TTM) $1.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −76%, LCID screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7735Fair Value $1.04Bull $1.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+67.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+220.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+158.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15,071.1% (2020) → −258.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−31% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−199% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth56% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.07× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lucid Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LCID
Frequently asked questions
Is Lucid Group Inc (LCID) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.04 versus a price of $4.32, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LCID?
Our model-based fair value for Lucid Group Inc is $1.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.32.
What is the quality score of LCID?
Lucid Group Inc has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7735, optimistic scenario $1.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucid Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.04, about −76% upside versus a price of $4.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7735, optimistic scenario $1.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Lucid Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucid Group Inc it is $1.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.32. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lucid Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LCID trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.32, fair value $1.04, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LCID?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.04). For Lucid Group Inc the two are $3.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucid Group Inc worth?
The market values Lucid Group Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.32; our models calculate a fair value of $1.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LCID?
Our models span a range for Lucid Group Inc: cautious scenario $0.7735, base $1.04, optimistic $1.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucid Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucid Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucid Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.32, calculated fair value $1.04 (−76%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LCID calculated?
We run Lucid Group Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lucid Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $4.32. Our model-based fair value is $1.04, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucid Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.7735 to $1.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lucid Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The market capitalisation of Lucid Group Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucid Group Inc is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Earnings per share at Lucid Group Inc are $−12.65. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The net margin of Lucid Group Inc is −249% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lucid Group Inc is −126% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucid Group Inc is −32.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
The operating margin of Lucid Group Inc is −261% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucid Group Inc (LCID)?
Revenue at Lucid Group Inc is growing +56.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lucid Group Inc (LCID) generate?
The free cash flow of Lucid Group Inc is −$3.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lucid Group Inc (LCID) hold?
Lucid Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $137M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026