LGI Homes (LGIH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of LGI Homes $53.38, price $48.60, upside +9.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.24 – $173.25 · fair‑value band $51.19 – $62.07 · the $48.60 price screens below the $53.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand.
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LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand. The company also engages in the wholesale business, which includes building and selling homes to large institutions interested in acquiring single-family rental properties through bulk sales agreements. It operates in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, Nevada, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Utah. LGI Homes, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
LGI Homes (LGIH) currently trades at $48.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.38, implying the stock looks roughly 9.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.13 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the $48.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $47.75, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $51.19 (bear) to $62.07 (bull), the price of $48.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
LGI Homes reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound −13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $72.6M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) $3.04 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1% · Operating margin −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 10%, LGIH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $51.19Fair Value $53.38Bull $62.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 5%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LGI Homes Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LGIH
Frequently asked questions
Is LGI Homes (LGIH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.38 versus a price of $48.60, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LGIH?
Our model-based fair value for LGI Homes is $53.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.60.
What is the quality score of LGIH?
LGI Homes has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.19, optimistic scenario $62.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LGI Homes stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.38, about +10% upside versus a price of $48.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $51.19, optimistic scenario $62.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
LGI Homes reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LGI Homes it is $53.38 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $48.60. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LGI Homes stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LGIH trades below its calculated fair value: price $48.60, fair value $53.38, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LGIH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.38). For LGI Homes the two are $4.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LGI Homes worth?
The market values LGI Homes at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $48.60; our models calculate a fair value of $53.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LGIH?
Our models span a range for LGI Homes: cautious scenario $51.19, base $53.38, optimistic $62.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $48.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LGIH?
LGI Homes trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 41.0.
What is the PEG ratio of LGIH?
The PEG ratio of LGI Homes is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Balance-sheet figures for LGI Homes (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.2%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LGIH from its 52-week high?
LGI Homes trades at $48.60, about 26% below its 52-week high of $65.84 and 42% above the low of $34.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LGI Homes?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LGI Homes stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $48.60, calculated fair value $53.38 (+10%), Quality Score 38/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LGIH calculated?
We run LGI Homes through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. LGI Homes currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $48.60. Our model-based fair value is $53.38, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LGI Homes right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($51.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of LGI Homes (LGIH) come from?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes grew +11.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of LGI Homes
How large is the market capitalisation of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The market capitalisation of LGI Homes is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LGI Homes is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes are $3.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The net margin of LGI Homes is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LGI Homes is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LGI Homes is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LGI Homes (LGIH)?
The operating margin of LGI Homes is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Revenue at LGI Homes is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LGI Homes (LGIH)?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes are growing −47.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LGI Homes (LGIH) generate?
The free cash flow of LGI Homes is −$141M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LGI Homes (LGIH) carry?
The net debt of LGI Homes is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026