LGI Homes, Inc (LGIH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.3B
LGI Homes, Inc
LGIH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $68.70 to $56.38 (−17.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $50.66 (bear) to $66.36 (bull), base $56.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.24 – $183.36 · fair‑value band $50.66 – $66.36 · the $60.04 price screens above the $56.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
LGI Homes, Inc (LGIH) currently trades at $60.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.38, implying the stock looks roughly 6.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, LGI Homes, Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $50.66 (bear case) to $66.36 (bull case); at $60.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -6%, LGIH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($682.48) versus Earnings-Based ($47.75). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand.
Full company description
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand. The company also engages in the wholesale business, which includes building and selling homes to large institutions interested in acquiring single-family rental properties through bulk sales agreements. It operates in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, Nevada, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Utah. LGI Homes, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LGI Homes, Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound −13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $72.6M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- LGI Homes (LGIH) Could Be 37% Undervalued On Blue Ridge Crossing Launch
- LGI Homes Expands in North Dallas with the Opening of Blue Ridge Crossing
- LGI Homes Introduces Cypress Gardens with Grand Opening Event in Marana, Arizona
- LGI Homes Unveils New Section at The Meadows with Grand Opening Event in Mebane, North Carolina
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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