Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.3B
Lightspeed Commerce Inc
LSPD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $9.81 to $3.38 (−65.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The models converge in a tight band ($3.33 to $3.43), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.86 – $124.41 · fair‑value band $3.33 – $3.43 · the $10.46 price screens above the $3.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD) currently trades at $10.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.38, implying the stock looks roughly 67.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lightspeed Commerce Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of -11.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $437M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.33 (bear case) to $3.43 (bull case); at $10.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -68%, LSPD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($14.04) versus Multiples ($3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. engages in sale of cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions for single and multi-location retailers, restaurants, golf course operators, and other businesses.
Full company description
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. engages in sale of cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions for single and multi-location retailers, restaurants, golf course operators, and other businesses. It offers a cloud-based commerce platform that connects suppliers, merchants, and consumers to enable omnichannel experiences and engage with consumers, manage operations, accept payments, and grow business. The company's cloud platform is designed around interrelated elements, such as omni-channel consumer experience, a comprehensive back-office operations management suite to improve customers' efficiency and insight, and the facilitation of payments. Its platform functionalities include full omni-channel capabilities, point of sale (POS), product and menu management, kitchen display system (KDS), employee and inventory management comprising ordering, analytics and reporting, multi-location connectivity, order anywhere and curbside pickup functionality, loyalty, and customer management solutions. The company also offers tailored financial solutions, such as Lightspeed Payments and Lightspeed Capital; Lightspeed Restaurant, a unified hospitality commerce offering; Lightspeed Retail, a retail commerce offering; Lightspeed eCommerce; Lightspeed Wholesale; and Lightspeed NuORDER integration to order from various brands. In addition, it sells hardware, including tablets, customer-facing displays, KDS screens, receipt printers, networking hardware, cash drawers, payment terminals, servers, stands, bar-code scanners, and an assortment of accessories, as well as provide installation and implementation services. The company was formerly known as Lightspeed POS Inc. and changed its name to Lightspeed Commerce Inc. in August 2021. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Lightspeed Commerce Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $548M in FY2022, a compound +22.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$144M in FY2026.
LSPD screens 68% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lightspeed Commerce (TSX:LSPD) After Earnings And Buyback The Undervalued Case Gets Another Look
- Will Profitability Gains, Buybacks and Meta Tie-Up Change Lightspeed Commerce's (TSX:LSPD) Narrative
- LIGHTSPEED ANNOUNCES VOTING RESULTS FROM ITS ANNUAL AND SPECIAL SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING
- Lightspeed CEO breaks down Q1 growth 'we're firing on all cyclinders'
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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