Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lion Selection Group Ltd A$0.93, price A$0.89, upside +5.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3235 – A$1.11 · fair‑value band A$0.4690 – A$1.91 · the A$0.8850 price screens below the A$0.9293 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lion Selection Group Limited is a Listed Investment Company (LIC) that invests specializes in early stage investment. The fund does not invest in oil or gas mining companies. It primarily invests in precious and base metals mining companies. The fund seeks to make investments in Australia.
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Lion Selection Group Limited is a Listed Investment Company (LIC) that invests specializes in early stage investment. The fund does not invest in oil or gas mining companies. It primarily invests in precious and base metals mining companies. The fund seeks to make investments in Australia. The fund seeks to invest in projects that are close to development or with exposure to advanced exploration. It seeks to make investments not exceeding 30% of its capital and 3"5 year investment horizon. Lion Selection Group Limited is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) currently trades at A$0.8850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.9293, implying the stock looks roughly 4.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$2.90 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.8850 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.1700, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.4690 (bear) to A$1.91 (bull), the price of A$0.8850 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lion Selection Group Ltd reported revenue of A$46.4M in FY2025 versus A$93.0K in FY2021, a compound +372.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$39.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$127M (≈ $89.1M) · P/E ratio 2.3 · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3800 · Net margin 84.5% · Return on equity 41.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% · Operating margin 95.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 5%, LSX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.4690Fair Value A$0.9293Bull A$1.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3800 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,268.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.95% → 96%
2025 sits 3,386% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Return on assets28% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)84% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)95% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth90% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lion Selection Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LSX
Frequently asked questions
Is Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.9293 versus a price of A$0.8850, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LSX?
Our model-based fair value for Lion Selection Group Ltd is A$0.9293 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8850.
What is the quality score of LSX?
Lion Selection Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.9293 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4690, optimistic scenario A$1.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lion Selection Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.9293, about +5% upside versus a price of A$0.8850 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.4690, optimistic scenario A$1.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Lion Selection Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$64.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lion Selection Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +47.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LSX use?
Our models discount Lion Selection Group Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lion Selection Group Ltd that is +47.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lion Selection Group Ltd grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +47.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lion Selection Group Ltd (+47.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.65 %: that much free cash flow Lion Selection Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lion Selection Group Ltd it is A$0.9293 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.8850. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lion Selection Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LSX trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.8850, fair value A$0.9293, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LSX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.9293). For Lion Selection Group Ltd the two are A$0.0443 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lion Selection Group Ltd worth?
The market values Lion Selection Group Ltd at about A$127M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8850; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.9293 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LSX?
Our models span a range for Lion Selection Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4690, base A$0.9293, optimistic A$1.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.8850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LSX?
Lion Selection Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.9293 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lion Selection Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 41.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LSX from its 52-week high?
Lion Selection Group Ltd trades at A$0.8850, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$1.11 and 13% above the low of A$0.7850 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.9293 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lion Selection Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lion Selection Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.8850, calculated fair value A$0.9293 (+5%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LSX calculated?
We run Lion Selection Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.9293, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lion Selection Group Ltd currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.8850. Our model-based fair value is A$0.9293, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lion Selection Group Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.4690 to A$1.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Lion Selection Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The market capitalisation of Lion Selection Group Ltd is A$127M (≈ $89.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lion Selection Group Ltd is 1.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Earnings per share at Lion Selection Group Ltd are A$0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The net margin of Lion Selection Group Ltd is 84.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lion Selection Group Ltd is 41.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lion Selection Group Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
The operating margin of Lion Selection Group Ltd is 95.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Revenue at Lion Selection Group Ltd is growing +89.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +77.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX)?
Earnings per share at Lion Selection Group Ltd are growing +86.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lion Selection Group Ltd (LSX) hold?
Lion Selection Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$8.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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