LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock $37.38, price $42.38, upside -11.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range $21.42 – $68.29 · fair‑value band $28.03 – $46.72 · the $42.38 price screens above the $37.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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LATAM Airlines Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, the United States, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, Europe, and Oceania.
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As of December 31, 2024, the company provides passenger transport services to 160 destinations in 27 countries; and operated 371 fleet of aircraft. The company was formerly known as LAN Airlines S.A. and changed its name to LATAM Airlines Group S.A. in June 2012.
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.
Stock analysis
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) currently trades at $42.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.38, 11.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $133.91 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the $42.38 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $22.93, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.03 (bear) to $46.72 (bull), the price of $42.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +30.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $12.6B Large · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $5.42 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 108% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at −12%, LTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.03Fair Value $37.38Bull$46.72
Price $42.38 · Upside -11.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32.4% vs −9.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−116% → 16%
2025 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 33.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.7% a year for the price and +6.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The airline shows resilience via its competitive cost structure and ability to pass through fuel costs, yet high competition and cyclical exposure limit any durable moat.
Main risk: Regional competition could force faster yield compression and thereby hit margins even as capacity grows and costs are passed through.
LATAM offset an 80 percent surge in fuel prices by raising revenue per available seat kilometer 17.5 percent year over year in the second quarter while growing capacity. Its competitive cost structure and ability to pass through costs point to a resilient model, yet our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will this margin protection persist as fuel prices stabilize or will regional competition force faster yield compression?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 55 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)108.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LTM
Frequently asked questions
Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.38 versus a price of $42.38, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LTM?
Our model-based fair value for LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is $37.38 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $42.38.
What is the quality score of LTM?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.38 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $46.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.38, about −12% upside versus a price of $42.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.03, optimistic scenario $46.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. pay a dividend?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.74% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.5 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LTM use?
Our models discount LATAM Airlines Group S.A. at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For LATAM Airlines Group S.A. that is -6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. grew +29.5 % a year. The price currently implies -6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (-6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.22 %: that much free cash flow LATAM Airlines Group S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LATAM Airlines Group S.A. it is $37.38 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $42.38. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, LTM trades above its calculated fair value: price $42.38, fair value $37.38, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($42.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.38). For LATAM Airlines Group S.A. the two are $5.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. worth?
The market values LATAM Airlines Group S.A. at about $12.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $42.38; our models calculate a fair value of $37.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LTM?
Our models span a range for LATAM Airlines Group S.A.: cautious scenario $28.03, base $37.38, optimistic $46.72 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $42.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LTM?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 9.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of LTM?
The PEG ratio of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 2.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 108.0%, debt of 2.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LTM from its 52-week high?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. trades at $42.38, about 38% below its 52-week high of $68.29 and at the low of $42.19 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LATAM Airlines Group S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $42.38, calculated fair value $37.38 (−12%), Quality Score 54/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LTM calculated?
We run LATAM Airlines Group S.A. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. LATAM Airlines Group S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $42.38. Our model-based fair value is $37.38, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LATAM Airlines Group S.A. right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of LATAM Airlines Group S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The market capitalisation of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is $12.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 0.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Earnings per share at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. are $5.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The dividend yield of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 2.7% (payout 21.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The net margin of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 9.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 108% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
The operating margin of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Revenue at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is growing +27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)?
Earnings per share at LATAM Airlines Group S.A. are growing −46.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) carry?
The net debt of LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is $5.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026