Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation $15.84, price $5.28, upside +200.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.28 – $16.17 · fair‑value band $4.95 – $34.73 · the $5.28 price screens below the $15.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation operates location-based entertainment venues in North America. The company operates traditional bowling under the AMF and Bowl America brands; and entertainment concept with lounge seating, food and beverage offerings, and customer service for individuals and group events under the Lucky Strike and Bowlero brands.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation operates location-based entertainment venues in North America. The company operates traditional bowling under the AMF and Bowl America brands; and entertainment concept with lounge seating, food and beverage offerings, and customer service for individuals and group events under the Lucky Strike and Bowlero brands. It also operates Octane Raceway, Raging Waves water park, Shipwreck Island water park, Big Kahuna's water park, and Boomers Parks. The company was formerly known as Bowlero Corp. and changed its name to Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation in December 2024. Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Mechanicsville, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) currently trades at $5.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.84, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.35 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $5.28 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.06, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.95 (bear) to $34.73 (bull), the price of $5.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $395M in FY2021, a compound +32.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$10.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6300 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 19.6% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 200%, LUCK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.95Fair Value $15.84Bull $34.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.4% (2020) → 11.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.1% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.83× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF28.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)4· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)89· sector 57
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUCK
Frequently asked questions
Is Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.84 versus a price of $5.28, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUCK?
Our model-based fair value for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is $15.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.28.
What is the quality score of LUCK?
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.95, optimistic scenario $34.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.84, about +200% upside versus a price of $5.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.95, optimistic scenario $34.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation pay a dividend?
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +30.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUCK use?
Our models discount Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation that is +30.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation grew +18.2 % a year. The price currently implies +30.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (+30.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation it is $15.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.28. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LUCK trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.28, fair value $15.84, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUCK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.84). For Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation the two are $10.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation worth?
The market values Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.28; our models calculate a fair value of $15.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUCK?
Our models span a range for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation: cautious scenario $4.95, base $15.84, optimistic $34.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUCK from its 52-week high?
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation trades at $5.28, about 49% below its 52-week high of $10.33 and at the low of $5.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.28, calculated fair value $15.84 (+200%), Quality Score 43/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUCK calculated?
We run Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.28. Our model-based fair value is $15.84, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($4.95 to $34.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The market capitalisation of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation are $−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The dividend yield of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is 4.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The net margin of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
The operating margin of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Revenue at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation are growing +38.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) carry?
The net debt of Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is $2.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 71.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026