Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Masi Agricola S.p.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.76 – €5.56 · fair‑value band €0.9900 – €1.62 · the €4.32 price screens above the €1.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Masi Agricola S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of fine wines in Italy, rest of Europe, the Americas, and internationally. The company was founded in 1772 and is headquartered in Sant'Ambrogio Di Valpolicella, Italy.
Stock analysis
Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) currently trades at €4.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.62, implying the stock looks roughly 166.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €2.68 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €4.32 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €0.4200, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €0.9900 (bear) to €1.62 (bull), the price of €4.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Masi Agricola S.p.A reported revenue of €64.4M in FY2025 versus €66.4M in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €139M · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −2.5% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −63%, MASI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.9900Fair Value €1.62Bull €1.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.2% (2020) → 2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 97 stocks
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Is Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.62 versus a price of €4.32, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MASI?
Our model-based fair value for Masi Agricola S.p.A is €1.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.32.
What is the quality score of MASI?
Masi Agricola S.p.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.9900, optimistic scenario €1.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Masi Agricola S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.62, about −63% upside versus a price of €4.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.9900, optimistic scenario €1.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Masi Agricola S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €64.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Masi Agricola S.p.A pay a dividend?
Masi Agricola S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Masi Agricola S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +41.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MASI use?
Our models discount Masi Agricola S.p.A at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Masi Agricola S.p.A that is +41.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Masi Agricola S.p.A grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +41.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Masi Agricola S.p.A (+41.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.94 %: that much free cash flow Masi Agricola S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Masi Agricola S.p.A it is €1.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €4.32. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Masi Agricola S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, MASI trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.32, fair value €1.62, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MASI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.62). For Masi Agricola S.p.A the two are €2.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Masi Agricola S.p.A worth?
The market values Masi Agricola S.p.A at about €139M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €4.32; our models calculate a fair value of €1.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MASI?
Our models span a range for Masi Agricola S.p.A: cautious scenario €0.9900, base €1.62, optimistic €1.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €4.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Masi Agricola S.p.A (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −2.0%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MASI from its 52-week high?
Masi Agricola S.p.A trades at €4.32, about 13% below its 52-week high of €4.94 and 16% above the low of €3.74 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Masi Agricola S.p.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Diageo plc, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Masi Agricola S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €4.32, calculated fair value €1.62 (−63%), Quality Score 47/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MASI calculated?
We run Masi Agricola S.p.A through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Masi Agricola S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €4.32. Our model-based fair value is €1.62, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Masi Agricola S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Masi Agricola S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The market capitalisation of Masi Agricola S.p.A is €139M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Masi Agricola S.p.A is 2.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Earnings per share at Masi Agricola S.p.A are €−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The dividend yield of Masi Agricola S.p.A is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The net margin of Masi Agricola S.p.A is −2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Masi Agricola S.p.A is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Masi Agricola S.p.A is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
The operating margin of Masi Agricola S.p.A is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Revenue at Masi Agricola S.p.A is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI)?
Earnings per share at Masi Agricola S.p.A are growing −60.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Masi Agricola S.p.A (MASI) carry?
The net debt of Masi Agricola S.p.A is €28.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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