United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of United Spirits Limited stock ₹372, price ₹1,270, upside -70.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹631.53 – ₹1,681 · fair‑value band ₹250.49 – ₹532.18 · the ₹1,270 price screens above the ₹372.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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United Spirits Limited manufactures, purchases, and sells alcoholic beverages and other allied spirits in India and internationally. Its alcoholic beverages include Scotch whisky, Indian made foreign liquor whisky, brandy, rum, vodka, and gin.
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The company primarily owns McDowell's No.1, Royal Challenge, Signature, Antiquity, Black Dog, Director's Special Black, McDowell's Rum, and McDowell's Brandy brands.
It also manufactures, imports, and sells Diageo's iconic brands, such as Haig Gold Label, Captain Morgan, Johnnie Walker, J&B, Baileys, Lagavulin, Talisker, VAT 69, Black & White, Smirnoff, and Ciroc.
In addition, the company holds the perpetual right to the Bangalore Franchise of Board of Control for Cricket in India "Indian Premier League. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as McDowell & Company Limited and changed its name to United Spirits Limited in October 2006.
United Spirits Limited was founded in 1826 and is headquartered in Bengaluru, India. United Spirits Limited operates as a subsidiary of Relay B.V.
Stock analysis
United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) currently trades at ₹1,270, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹372.00, 70.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹467.23 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹1,270 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹69.39, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹250.49 (bear) to ₹532.18 (bull), the price of ₹1,270 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
United Spirits Limited reported revenue of ₹125B in FY2026 versus ₹96.5B in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹18.4B in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹902B (≈ $9.5B) Mid · P/E ratio 63.9 · P/S ratio 7.96 · EPS (TTM) ₹19.84 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 48% fair-value upside, at −71%, MCDOWELL-N screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹69.39 to ₹667.09). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear₹250.49Fair Value ₹372.00Bull₹532.18
Price ₹1,270 · Upside -70.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹6.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.8% vs 13.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 92 stocks
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Is United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹372.00 versus a price of ₹1,270, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCDOWELL-N?
Our model-based fair value for United Spirits Limited is ₹372.00 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1,270.
What is the quality score of MCDOWELL-N?
United Spirits Limited has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹372.00 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹250.49, optimistic scenario ₹532.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Spirits Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹372.00, about −71% upside versus a price of ₹1,270 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹250.49, optimistic scenario ₹532.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
United Spirits Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹113B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does United Spirits Limited pay a dividend?
United Spirits Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.71% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Spirits Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCDOWELL-N use?
Our models discount United Spirits Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Spirits Limited that is +34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at United Spirits Limited grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Spirits Limited (+34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.49 %: that much free cash flow United Spirits Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Spirits Limited it is ₹372.00 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ₹1,270. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Spirits Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, MCDOWELL-N trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹1,270, fair value ₹372.00, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCDOWELL-N?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1,270); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹372.00). For United Spirits Limited the two are ₹898.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Spirits Limited worth?
The market values United Spirits Limited at about ₹902B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ₹1,270; our models calculate a fair value of ₹372.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCDOWELL-N?
Our models span a range for United Spirits Limited: cautious scenario ₹250.49, base ₹372.00, optimistic ₹532.18 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ₹1,270). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCDOWELL-N?
United Spirits Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 63.9 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹372.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.1, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 44.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Spirits Limited (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 21.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCDOWELL-N from its 52-week high?
United Spirits Limited trades at ₹1,270, about 18% below its 52-week high of ₹1,556 and 4% above the low of ₹1,222 (as of Oct 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹372.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Spirits Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Spirits Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ₹1,270, calculated fair value ₹372.00 (−71%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCDOWELL-N calculated?
We run United Spirits Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹372.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. United Spirits Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The closing price on Oct 27, 2026 was ₹1,270. Our model-based fair value is ₹372.00, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Spirits Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹532.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹250.49 to ₹532.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) come from?
Earnings per share at United Spirits Limited grew +13.8 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +6.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Spirits Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The market capitalisation of United Spirits Limited is ₹902B (≈ $9.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Spirits Limited is 7.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Earnings per share at United Spirits Limited are ₹19.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 63.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The dividend yield of United Spirits Limited is 0.7% (payout 45.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The net margin of United Spirits Limited is 12.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Spirits Limited is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Spirits Limited is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
The operating margin of United Spirits Limited is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Revenue at United Spirits Limited is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N)?
Earnings per share at United Spirits Limited are growing +135% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does United Spirits Limited (MCDOWELL-N) hold?
United Spirits Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹15.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026