Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $47.3B · ISIN US5950171042
Microchip Technology Inc
MCHP · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 706% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.14 – $102.71 · fair‑value band $7.82 – $13.03 · the $72.93 price screens above the $9.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) currently trades at $72.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.04, implying the stock looks roughly 87.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Microchip Technology Inc generated revenue of $4.7B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.82 (bear case) to $13.03 (bull case); at $72.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -88%, MCHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($32.39) versus Earnings-Based ($3.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It operates through two segments, Semiconductor Products and Technology Licensing.
Full company description
Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It operates through two segments, Semiconductor Products and Technology Licensing. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit, and 64-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit and 64-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized mixed-signal microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also offers analog products, including power management, linear, mixed-signal, high voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes and MOSFETS, radio frequency (RF), gate drivers, safety, security, timing, application specific standard products, USB, ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program mixed-signal microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products. In addition, the company offers memory products that consist of serial electrically erasable programmable read only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random-access memory, and electrically erasable random-access memory for production of footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it provides wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems, application specific integrated circuits, and products for aerospace applications. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Microchip Technology Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2026 versus $6.8B in FY2022, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $202M in FY2026, compounding −37.0%/yr from FY2022.
MCHP screens 706% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Microchip Technology (MCHP) Unveiled A Radiation Tolerant Atomic Clock For Satellites
- Lam Research vs. Microchip: Which Chip Stock Is the Better Buy?
- 3 Reasons to Sell MCHP and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Analog Semiconductors Stocks Q2 Teardown: Microchip Technology (NASDAQ:MCHP) Vs The Rest
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | -57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | -31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | -68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,730,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -14% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | -84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | -62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | -71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | -11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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