Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Microchip Technology Inc $27.68, price $71.25, upside -61.2%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.94 – $102.10 · fair‑value band $20.75 – $34.57 · the $71.25 price screens above the $27.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It operates through two segments, Semiconductor Products and Technology Licensing.
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The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit, and 64-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit and 64-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized mixed-signal microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications.
It also offers analog products, including power management, linear, mixed-signal, high voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes and MOSFETS, radio frequency (RF), gate drivers, safety, security, timing, application specific standard products, USB, ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program mixed-signal microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products.
In addition, the company offers memory products that consist of serial electrically erasable programmable read only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random-access memory, and electrically erasable random-access memory for production of footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products, as well as provides engineering services.
Further, it provides wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems, application specific integrated circuits, and products for aerospace applications. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) currently trades at $71.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.68, 61.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $32.39 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $71.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.78, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.75 (bear) to $34.57 (bull), the price of $71.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Microchip Technology Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2026 versus $6.8B in FY2022, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $202M in FY2026, compounding −37.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $39.0B · P/E ratio 104.8 · P/S ratio 4.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −61%, MCHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.05 to $38.41). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$20.75Fair Value $27.68Bull$34.57
Price $71.25 · Upside -61.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$14.70$32.34$61.7776
Residual Income$8.70$8.60$8.7776
Growth DCF$14.72$31.42$58.8574
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$14.70$32.34$61.7776
Owner Earnings$13.09$29.57$57.0572
5Y Revenue Exit$3.73$10.42$18.9168
5Y EBITDA Exit$16.27$35.49$59.0272
5Y P/E Exit$3.13$9.22$15.7467
10Y Revenue Exit$7.03$14.45$24.6564
10Y EBITDA Exit$15.51$32.49$57.2465
10Y P/E Exit$6.91$13.58$22.0862
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.53$10.49$14.2964
Lynch FV$2.65$3.78$4.9161
PEG = 1.0$2.65$3.78$4.9157
EPVn/an/a$0.470068
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$18.47$38.41$60.9366
DDM Multi-Stage$18.47$32.39$40.3166
Multiples
P/E Multiple$7.82$10.43$13.0363
P/S Multiple$4.75$6.33$7.9158
P/B Multiple$4.75$6.33$7.9155
EV/EBIT$6.57$11.98$17.4063
EV/EBITDA$19.64$29.42$39.1966
EV/Revenuen/a$2.05$5.5750
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.92$7.94$11.8554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$14.72$31.42$58.8574
Rev-Margin DCF$3.73$10.58$19.2068
Economic Profit
Residual Income$8.70$8.60$8.7776
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$0.470068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$5.42$7.74$10.0667
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.8% vs −6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.3% a year for the price and +14.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Mixed signals mark the business with decent gross margins as main strength offset by low ROE and high leverage as primary weakness.
Main risk: High leverage with debt near equity levels is the biggest risk to the business and could constrain further investments in aerospace and defense offerings.
Microchip just acquired VORAGO Technologies, adding radiation-hardened microcontrollers and its patented HARDSIL process to strengthen offerings for aerospace, defense and space systems amid rising demand in those markets. Our models continue to see the stock as overvalued on a broader basis. Will this targeted expansion in high-reliability segments deliver meaningful scale, or will it stay a modest addition relative to the rest of the business?
Compare Microchip Technology Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth38.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)104.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.07× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)7.62× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow44.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA29.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.23× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 93
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.68 versus a price of $71.25, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCHP?
Our model-based fair value for Microchip Technology Inc is $27.68 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $71.25.
What is the quality score of MCHP?
Microchip Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.68 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.75, optimistic scenario $34.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Microchip Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.68, about −61% upside versus a price of $71.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.75, optimistic scenario $34.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Microchip Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Microchip Technology Inc pay a dividend?
Microchip Technology Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.55% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Microchip Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +31.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCHP use?
Our models discount Microchip Technology Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Microchip Technology Inc that is +31.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Microchip Technology Inc grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +31.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Microchip Technology Inc (+31.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Microchip Technology Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Microchip Technology Inc it is $27.68 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $71.25. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Microchip Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, MCHP trades above its calculated fair value: price $71.25, fair value $27.68, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.68). For Microchip Technology Inc the two are $43.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Microchip Technology Inc worth?
The market values Microchip Technology Inc at about $39.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $71.25; our models calculate a fair value of $27.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCHP?
Our models span a range for Microchip Technology Inc: cautious scenario $20.75, base $27.68, optimistic $34.57 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $71.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCHP?
Microchip Technology Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.8 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.68 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 169.6 (reported for FY2026: 192.6). Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 6.1, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 29.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MCHP?
The PEG ratio of Microchip Technology Inc is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Microchip Technology Inc (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCHP from its 52-week high?
Microchip Technology Inc trades at $71.25, about 30% below its 52-week high of $102.10 and 49% above the low of $47.77 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Microchip Technology Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Microchip Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $71.25, calculated fair value $27.68 (−61%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCHP calculated?
We run Microchip Technology Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Microchip Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $71.25. Our model-based fair value is $27.68, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Microchip Technology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Microchip Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The market capitalisation of Microchip Technology Inc is $39.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Microchip Technology Inc is 4.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Earnings per share at Microchip Technology Inc are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 104.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The dividend yield of Microchip Technology Inc is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The net margin of Microchip Technology Inc is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Microchip Technology Inc is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Microchip Technology Inc is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
The operating margin of Microchip Technology Inc is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Revenue at Microchip Technology Inc is growing +38.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)?
Earnings per share at Microchip Technology Inc are growing −81.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) carry?
The net debt of Microchip Technology Inc is $5.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026