Modiv Industrial, Inc (MDV) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $185M
Modiv Industrial, Inc
MDV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +4.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range $6.64 – $44.65 · the $18.13 price screens above the $8.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Modiv Industrial, Inc (MDV) currently trades at $18.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.77, implying the stock looks roughly 51.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Modiv Industrial, Inc generated revenue of $47.0M at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.3%. Net debt stands at $254M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -52%, MDV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.66) versus Economic Profit ($8.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Modiv Industrial, Inc. is an internally managed REIT that is focused on single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing real estate. The Company actively acquires critical industrial manufacturing properties with long-term leases to tenants that fuel the national economy and strengthen the nation's supply chains. Modiv Industrial, Inc.
Full company description
Modiv Industrial, Inc. is an internally managed REIT that is focused on single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing real estate. The Company actively acquires critical industrial manufacturing properties with long-term leases to tenants that fuel the national economy and strengthen the nation's supply chains. Modiv Industrial, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Denver, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Modiv Industrial, Inc reported revenue of $46.4M in FY2025 versus $37.9M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1M in FY2025.
MDV screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether LPRO, EQR, LEG, MDV are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- Monday 6/29 Insider Buying Report: TYG, MDV
- Modivo (WSE:MDV) Stock Sees Fair Value Cut As Analysts Turn More Cautious
- $HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Continues to Investigate the Merger—NSTS, QSEA, FSEA, and MDV
Peer Group
REIT - Industrial · 63 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc PLD | $143.42 | $61.28 | -57% |
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $322.48 | $172.80 | -46% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $147.71 | $78.38 | -47% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $213.10 | $81.41 | -62% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $41.42 | $47.91 | +16% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.51 SGD | 2.00 SGD | -20% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $42.09 | $25.06 | -40% |
| First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR | $66.99 | $21.48 | -68% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $39.00 | $21.35 | -45% |
| STAG Industrial, Inc STAG | $41.11 | $24.31 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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