Modivo S.A. (MDV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Modivo S.A. PLN 56.86, price PLN 92.90, upside -38.8%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
7‑month range 73.18 PLN – 127.05 PLN · fair‑value band 25.98 PLN – 100.10 PLN · the 92.90 PLN price screens above the 56.86 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Modivo S.A. engages in the retail sale of footwear and other products in Poland, Central and Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. It operates through CCC, HalfPrice, eobuwie, MODIVO, and DeeZee segments.
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Modivo S.A. engages in the retail sale of footwear and other products in Poland, Central and Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. It operates through CCC, HalfPrice, eobuwie, MODIVO, and DeeZee segments. The company also sells clothing, handbags, shoe care accessories, homeware, accessories, cosmetics, toys, home furnishings, and health and beauty products through its offline stores and online channels. It offers its products under the CCC, HalfPrice, eobuwie, MODIVO, and DeeZee brands, as well as proprietary, licensed, and third-party brands. The company was formerly known as CCC S.A. and change its name to Modivo S.A. in February 2026. Modivo S.A. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Polkowice, Poland.
Stock analysis
Modivo S.A. (MDV) currently trades at 92.90 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56.86 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 63.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 96.05 PLN per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the 92.90 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 16.25 PLN, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 25.98 PLN (bear) to 100.10 PLN (bull), the price of 92.90 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Modivo S.A. reported revenue of 10.9B PLN in FY2026 versus 7.5B PLN in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 21.8M PLN in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 7.2B PLN (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 263.7 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) −1.16 PLN · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity −7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −39%, MDV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 25.98 PLNFair Value 56.86 PLNBull 100.10 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11.0% (2021) → 4.8% (2026)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +50.7% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−39% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.69× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)263.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.17× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF34.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.94× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)20· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Modivo S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDV
Frequently asked questions
Is Modivo S.A. (MDV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 56.86 PLN versus a price of 92.90 PLN, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDV?
Our model-based fair value for Modivo S.A. is 56.86 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 92.90 PLN.
What is the quality score of MDV?
Modivo S.A. has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 56.86 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.98 PLN, optimistic scenario 100.10 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Modivo S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 56.86 PLN, about −39% upside versus a price of 92.90 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 25.98 PLN, optimistic scenario 100.10 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Modivo S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.0B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Modivo S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +55.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDV use?
Our models discount Modivo S.A. at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Modivo S.A. that is +55.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Modivo S.A. (MDV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Modivo S.A. grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +55.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Modivo S.A. (MDV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Modivo S.A. (+55.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.76 %: that much free cash flow Modivo S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Modivo S.A. it is 56.86 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 92.90 PLN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Modivo S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDV trades above its calculated fair value: price 92.90 PLN, fair value 56.86 PLN, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (92.90 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (56.86 PLN). For Modivo S.A. the two are 36.04 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Modivo S.A. worth?
The market values Modivo S.A. at about 7.2B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 92.90 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 56.86 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDV?
Our models span a range for Modivo S.A.: cautious scenario 25.98 PLN, base 56.86 PLN, optimistic 100.10 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 92.90 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDV?
Modivo S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 263.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 56.86 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of MDV?
The PEG ratio of Modivo S.A. is 1.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Modivo S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.2%, debt of 0.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Modivo S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, Fast Retailing Co, The TJX Companies, Inc, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Modivo S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 92.90 PLN, calculated fair value 56.86 PLN (−39%), Quality Score 20/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDV calculated?
We run Modivo S.A. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 56.86 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Modivo S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 92.90 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 56.86 PLN, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Modivo S.A. right now?
Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (25.98 PLN to 100.10 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Modivo S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The market capitalisation of Modivo S.A. is 7.2B PLN (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Modivo S.A. is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Earnings per share at Modivo S.A. are −1.16 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 263.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The net margin of Modivo S.A. is 0.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Modivo S.A. is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Modivo S.A. is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
The operating margin of Modivo S.A. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Revenue at Modivo S.A. is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Modivo S.A. (MDV)?
Earnings per share at Modivo S.A. are growing −30.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Modivo S.A. (MDV) carry?
The net debt of Modivo S.A. is 1.6B PLN (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 29.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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