Mercer International Inc (MERC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mercer International Inc $0.40, price $0.26, upside +53.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2600 – $15.34 · fair‑value band $0.1835 – $0.6717 · the $0.2600 price screens below the $0.4002 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Mercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and northern bleached hardwood kraft (NBHK) pulp in the United States, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Solid Wood.
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Mercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and northern bleached hardwood kraft (NBHK) pulp in the United States, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Solid Wood. The company manufactures, sells, and distributes pulp, electricity, and chemicals through pulp mills. It also manufactures, distributes, and sells lumber, cross and glue laminated timber, finger joint lumber, wood pallets, electricity, biofuels, and wood residuals. In addition, the company generates and sells green energy produced from biomass cogeneration power plants. Further, it produces and sells NBSK pulp manufactured from softwood; green energy using carbon neutral biofuels, such as black liquor and wood waste; tall oil from black liquor for use as a chemical additive and green energy source; wood pellets and briquettes; lignin; and wood procurement and logistics services. The company sells its pulp products to pulp markets, integrated paper and paperboard manufacturers; and lumber products to national and regional distributors, large construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers. Mercer International Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Mercer International Inc (MERC) currently trades at $0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4002, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2.18 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.2600 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6800, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1835 (bear) to $0.6717 (bull), the price of $0.2600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mercer International Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$498M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $21.6M · EPS (TTM) $−8.02 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin −26.7% · Return on equity −297% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin −12.7% · Revenue (TTM) $1.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 91% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 54%, MERC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1835Fair Value $0.4002Bull $0.6717
Price $0.2600 · Upside +53.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.5% (2020) → −9.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Mercer International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+55.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−6.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−27.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−12.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercer International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MERC
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercer International Inc (MERC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4002 versus a price of $0.2600, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MERC?
Our model-based fair value for Mercer International Inc is $0.4002 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2600.
What is the quality score of MERC?
Mercer International Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4002 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1835, optimistic scenario $0.6717. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercer International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4002, about +54% upside versus a price of $0.2600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1835, optimistic scenario $0.6717. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Mercer International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Mercer International Inc pay a dividend?
Mercer International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.49% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercer International Inc it is $0.4002 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.2600. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercer International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MERC trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2600, fair value $0.4002, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MERC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4002). For Mercer International Inc the two are $0.1402 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercer International Inc worth?
The market values Mercer International Inc at about $21.6M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4002 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MERC?
Our models span a range for Mercer International Inc: cautious scenario $0.1835, base $0.4002, optimistic $0.6717 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MERC?
The PEG ratio of Mercer International Inc is 2.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercer International Inc (as of Oct 2, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MERC from its 52-week high?
Mercer International Inc trades at $0.2600, about 91% below its 52-week high of $2.90 and at the low of $0.2600 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4002 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercer International Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercer International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.2600, calculated fair value $0.4002 (+54%), Quality Score 31/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MERC calculated?
We run Mercer International Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4002, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Mercer International Inc currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.2600. Our model-based fair value is $0.4002, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercer International Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($0.1835 to $0.6717). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Mercer International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The market capitalisation of Mercer International Inc is $21.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Earnings per share at Mercer International Inc are $−8.02. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The dividend yield of Mercer International Inc is 8.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The net margin of Mercer International Inc is −26.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercer International Inc is −297% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercer International Inc is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The operating margin of Mercer International Inc is −12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Revenue at Mercer International Inc is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Earnings per share at Mercer International Inc are growing −72.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mercer International Inc (MERC) generate?
The free cash flow of Mercer International Inc is −$80.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mercer International Inc (MERC) carry?
The net debt of Mercer International Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026