Mercialys SA (MERY) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · FR · Market cap €1.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from €4.90 to €4.91 (+0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.73 – €12.10 · fair‑value band €4.63 – €7.71 · the €11.88 price screens above the €4.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Mercialys SA (MERY) currently trades at €11.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.91, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mercialys SA generated revenue of €181M at a net margin of 18.8%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.63 (bear case) to €7.71 (bull case); at €11.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -59%, MERY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€12.78) versus Growth DCF (€0.9700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mercialys SA is one of France's leading real estate companies. It specializes in the holding, management and transformation of retail spaces, anticipating consumer trends, on its own behalf and for third parties.
Full company description
Mercialys SA is one of France's leading real estate companies. It specializes in the holding, management and transformation of retail spaces, anticipating consumer trends, on its own behalf and for third parties. At December 31, 2025, Mercialys had a real estate portfolio valued at Euro 3.0 billion (including transfer taxes), with an annualized rental base of Euro 178.6 million. Mercialys has been listed on the stock market since October 12, 2005 and has (SIIC) real estate investment trust (REIT) tax status. Part of the SBF 120 and Euronext Paris Compartment A, it had 93,886,501 shares outstanding at December 31, 2025. Mercialys SA was established in August, 19, 1999 and was incorporated in 1999 in France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mercialys SA reported revenue of €237M in FY2025 versus €205M in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was €34.0M in FY2025, compounding −14.0%/yr from FY2021.
MERY screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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