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Mex Polska S.A (MEX) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · PL · Market cap 28.1M PLN

MP Mex Polska S.A MEX · WAR
Price3.50 PLN
Fair Value0.6600 PLN
Upside-81.1%
Quality53/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 31/100
Evidence: High Range 0.4900 PLN – 0.8200 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 6.98 PLN to 0.6600 PLN (−90.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.8200 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

5.67 PLN 1.51 PLN Fair Value 0.6600 PLN Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.51 PLN – 5.67 PLN · fair‑value band 0.4900 PLN – 0.8200 PLN · the 3.50 PLN price screens above the 0.6600 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Mex Polska S.A (MEX) currently trades at 3.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6600 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 81.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mex Polska S.A generated revenue of 127M PLN at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 24.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at 43.3M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 0.4900 PLN (bear case) to 0.8200 PLN (bull case); at 3.50 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -81%, MEX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 13.29 PLN 20.12 PLN 29.38 PLN 80
Residual Income 1.49 PLN 1.51 PLN 1.41 PLN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 8.63 PLN 12.65 PLN 17.95 PLN 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 13.58 PLN 21.61 PLN 33.42 PLN 38
Owner Earnings 10.82 PLN 17.11 PLN 26.37 PLN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 8.63 PLN 12.57 PLN 17.59 PLN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 15.97 PLN 27.91 PLN 42.99 PLN 41
5Y P/E Exit 7.09 PLN 9.35 PLN 11.70 PLN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 10.41 PLN 14.55 PLN 20.41 PLN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 14.72 PLN 24.24 PLN 38.82 PLN 37
10Y P/E Exit 9.65 PLN 12.52 PLN 16.14 PLN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 0.8800 PLN 4.32 PLN 5.96 PLN 54
Lynch FV 1.16 PLN 1.66 PLN 2.16 PLN 50
PEG = 1.0 1.16 PLN 1.66 PLN 2.16 PLN 46
EPV 4.08 PLN 4.47 PLN 4.79 PLN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.17 PLN 1.95 PLN 2.53 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.17 PLN 1.85 PLN 2.10 PLN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.14 PLN 2.86 PLN 3.57 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 1.65 PLN 2.21 PLN 2.76 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 1.65 PLN 2.21 PLN 2.76 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 7.69 PLN 9.98 PLN 12.28 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 19.28 PLN 25.44 PLN 31.60 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 5.44 PLN 7.43 PLN 9.42 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.02 PLN 1.37 PLN 2.05 PLN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 13.29 PLN 20.12 PLN 29.38 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 8.63 PLN 12.65 PLN 17.95 PLN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.49 PLN 1.51 PLN 1.41 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 4.39 PLN 5.19 PLN 6.08 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 1.84 PLN 2.63 PLN 3.42 PLN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (14.55 PLN) versus Asset-Based (1.37 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 127M PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.4%
Net margin 0.9%
Return on equity 5.0%
Free cash flow 10.3M PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 24.5
More key figures
Operating margin 7.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.1500 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) -44.9%
Net debt 43.3M PLN FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mex Polska S.A. develops, owns, operates, manages, and franchises restaurants primarily in Poland. It operates bistros and catering establishments under the Pankejk, The Mexican, Prosty Temat, Pijalnia Wódki i Piwa, and Chicas & Gorillas brand names. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Lódz, Poland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mex Polska S.A reported revenue of 127M PLN in FY2025 versus 47.2M PLN in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was 995K PLN in FY2025, compounding −36.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
127M PLN
Latest YoY
+19.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.1%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.2%
Revenue +28.2%/yr
FY21 47.2M PLN
FY22 81.8M PLN
FY23 95.4M PLN
FY24 107M PLN
FY25 127M PLN
Net income −36.6%/yr
FY21 6.2M PLN
FY22 5.8M PLN
FY23 3.9M PLN
FY24 2.4M PLN
FY25 995K PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +2.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.7 pp

of which total revenue +8.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.3 pp

EBIT margin +2.3 pp
Tax rate +0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

MEX screens 81% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mex Polska S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEX

Peer Group

Restaurants · 227 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.48× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 28
FUTURE 70 · sector 20
PAST 24 · sector 16
HEALTH 99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCDS C$24.01 C$10.84 -55%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $105.49 $35.83 -66%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $34.63 $18.43 -47%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $163.54 $59.66 -64%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.19 C$36.37 -65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $195.74 $173.68 -11%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $43.90 $55.10 +26%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $197.03 $104.89 -47%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $68.36 $12.80 -81%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $322.18 $231.96 -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mex Polska S.A (MEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.6600 PLN versus a price of 3.50 PLN, about −81% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEX?
Our model-based fair value for Mex Polska S.A is 0.6600 PLN (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 3.50 PLN.
What is the quality score of MEX?
Mex Polska S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mex Polska S.A (MEX)?
Mex Polska S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 127M PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MEX?
The net profit margin of Mex Polska S.A is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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