Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mex Polska S.A. stock PLN 2.86, price PLN 3.40, that is 15.9% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.51 PLN – 5.67 PLN · fair‑value band 2.14 PLN – 3.57 PLN · the 3.40 PLN price screens above the 2.86 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Mex Polska S.A. develops, owns, operates, manages, and franchises restaurants primarily in Poland. It operates bistros and catering establishments under the Pankejk, The Mexican, Prosty Temat, Pijalnia Wódki i Piwa, and Chicas & Gorillas brand names.
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The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Lódz, Poland.
Stock analysis
Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) currently trades at 3.40 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.86 PLN, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 27.60 PLN per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3.40 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.6200 PLN, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.14 PLN (bear) to 3.57 PLN (bull), the price of 3.40 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mex Polska S.A. reported revenue of 127M PLN in FY2025 versus 47.2M PLN in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was 995K PLN in FY2025, compounding −36.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.1M PLN (≈ $6.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.19 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) 135M PLN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −16%, MEX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2.14 PLNFair Value 2.86 PLNBull3.57 PLN
Price 3.40 PLN · Downside -15.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.5% vs −12.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−26% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−30.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −32.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mex Polska S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEX
Frequently asked questions
Is Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.86 PLN versus a price of 3.40 PLN, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEX?
Our model-based fair value for Mex Polska S.A. is 2.86 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.40 PLN.
What is the quality score of MEX?
Mex Polska S.A. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.86 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.14 PLN, optimistic scenario 3.57 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mex Polska S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.86 PLN, about 16% lower versus a price of 3.40 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.14 PLN, optimistic scenario 3.57 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Mex Polska S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 135M PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Mex Polska S.A. pay a dividend?
Mex Polska S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.10% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Mex Polska S.A. has a dividend yield of 5.1%.
What growth is priced into Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mex Polska S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -30.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEX use?
Our models discount Mex Polska S.A. at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mex Polska S.A. that is -30.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mex Polska S.A. grew +25.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -30.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mex Polska S.A. (-30.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.59 %: that much free cash flow Mex Polska S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mex Polska S.A. it is 2.86 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 3.40 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mex Polska S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MEX trades above its calculated fair value: price 3.40 PLN, fair value 2.86 PLN, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.40 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.86 PLN). For Mex Polska S.A. the two are 0.5400 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mex Polska S.A. worth?
The market values Mex Polska S.A. at about 26.1M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 3.40 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 2.86 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEX?
Our models span a range for Mex Polska S.A.: cautious scenario 2.14 PLN, base 2.86 PLN, optimistic 3.57 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 3.40 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mex Polska S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEX from its 52-week high?
Mex Polska S.A. trades at 3.40 PLN, about 40% below its 52-week high of 5.67 PLN and 8% above the low of 3.14 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.86 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mex Polska S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mex Polska S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 3.40 PLN, calculated fair value 2.86 PLN (−16%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEX calculated?
We run Mex Polska S.A. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 2.86 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mex Polska S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 3.40 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 2.86 PLN, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mex Polska S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) come from?
Earnings per share at Mex Polska S.A. grew −5.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mex Polska S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The market capitalisation of Mex Polska S.A. is 26.1M PLN (≈ $6.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mex Polska S.A. is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The dividend yield of Mex Polska S.A. is 5.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The net margin of Mex Polska S.A. is 0.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mex Polska S.A. is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mex Polska S.A. is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
The operating margin of Mex Polska S.A. is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Revenue at Mex Polska S.A. is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mex Polska S.A. (MEX)?
Earnings per share at Mex Polska S.A. are growing −44.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mex Polska S.A. (MEX) carry?
The net debt of Mex Polska S.A. is 48.0M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026