Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mayfield Childcare Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$13.6M (≈ $9.8M) · ISIN AU000000MFD1
At a glance
MCMayfield Childcare LtdMFD · AU
PriceA$0.1000
Fair ValueA$0.1190
Upside+19.0%
Quality36/100
Below-average quality, trading 16% below our fair value of A$0.1190.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$0.1190 per share against a price of A$0.1000, so the fair value sits 19% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +22.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range A$0.0707 to A$0.2493
Evidence: LowRange A$0.0707 to A$0.2493
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −23.1% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0707 to A$0.2493). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1000 – A$1.49 · fair‑value band A$0.0707 – A$0.2493 · the A$0.1000 price screens below the A$0.1190 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) currently trades at A$0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1190, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.14 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.1000 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2400, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mayfield Childcare Ltd generated revenue of A$91.6M at a net margin of −23.4%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −37.6%. Net debt stands at A$303M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: A$0.0707 (bear) to A$0.2493 (bull), the price of A$0.1000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 19%, MFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio0.15TTM
EPS (TTM)A$−0.2800
Net margin−23.4%FY2025
Return on equity−37.6%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)2.0%avg 5y
Operating margin5.4%TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM)A$91.6MTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−3.6%3y avg +9.8%
EPS growth (YoY)−57.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowA$8.8MFY2025
Net debtA$303MFY2025 · ≈ 34.5 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality36/100
Of which business quality 35
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Profitability6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance13
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mayfield Childcare Limited provides childcare services in Australia. It owns and operates long day care centers; and offers childcare and early education services. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mayfield Childcare Ltd reported revenue of A$91.4M in FY2025 versus A$39.7M in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$21.4M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$91.4M
Latest YoY
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2020) → 2.7% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE59· sector 22
FUTURE0· sector 21
PAST0· sector 34
HEALTH100· sector 91
DIVIDEND0· sector 66
Insider activity: 55/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1190 versus a price of A$0.1000, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFD?
Our model-based fair value for Mayfield Childcare Ltd is A$0.1190 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1000.
What is the quality score of MFD?
Mayfield Childcare Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1190 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0707, optimistic scenario A$0.2493. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1190, about +19% upside versus a price of A$0.1000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0707, optimistic scenario A$0.2493. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Mayfield Childcare Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$91.6M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MFD?
The net profit margin of Mayfield Childcare Ltd is about −23.4%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
What is the intrinsic value of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mayfield Childcare Ltd it is A$0.1190 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.1000. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, MFD trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1000, fair value A$0.1190, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1190). For Mayfield Childcare Ltd the two are A$0.0190 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mayfield Childcare Ltd worth?
The market values Mayfield Childcare Ltd at about A$13.6M (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1190 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFD?
Our models span a range for Mayfield Childcare Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0707, base A$0.1190, optimistic A$0.2493 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price A$0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mayfield Childcare Ltd (MFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mayfield Childcare Ltd (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity −37.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Mayfield Childcare Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, Frontdoor, Inc, H&R Block, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mayfield Childcare Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price A$0.1000, calculated fair value A$0.1190 (+19%), Quality Score 36/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFD calculated?
We run Mayfield Childcare Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1190, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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