Mistras Group (MG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $587M
Mistras Group
MG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $11.68 to $11.11 (−4.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.70 to $13.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.84 – $19.28 · fair‑value band $5.70 – $13.89 · the $16.08 price screens above the $11.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Mistras Group (MG) currently trades at $16.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.11, implying the stock looks roughly 30.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mistras Group generated revenue of $731M at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at $215M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.70 (bear case) to $13.89 (bull case); at $16.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -31%, MG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($11.37) versus Dividend Discount ($1.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mistras Group, Inc. provides technology-enabled industrial asset integrity and laboratory testing solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and South America.
Full company description
Mistras Group, Inc. provides technology-enabled industrial asset integrity and laboratory testing solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and South America. The company offers non-destructive testing (NDT) services; pipeline inspections; Plant Condition Management Software; maintenance planning; and specialized engineering solutions. It also provides maintenance and light mechanical services, such as corrosion removal, mitigation and prevention, insulation installation and removal, electrical services, heat tracing, industrial cleaning, pipefitting, and welding; engineering consulting services, including plant operations and management support, turnaround/shutdown planning, profit improvement, facilities planning studies, engineering design, process safety reviews, energy optimization evaluations, benchmarking/key performance indicator development, and technical training. In addition, the company offers scaffolding and rope access forb at-height and confined assets; certified divers for subsea inspection and maintenance; unmanned aerial, land-based, and subsea systems for inspection applications; portable, handheld, wireless and turnkey NDT equipment; acoustic emission products and sensors, instruments, and turnkey systems for monitoring and testing materials, pressure components, processes, and structures; and ultrasonic testing equipment. Further, it provides asset protection solutions to detect, mitigate, and prevent degradation mechanisms, such as corrosion, cracking, leaks, and manufacturing defects; inspection, maintenance, and monitoring and data services; and quality assurance and quality control solutions for new and existing metal and alloy components, materials, and composites. It serves renewable energy, alternative power generation, natural gas transportation, data centers, pipeline integrity, and additive manufacturing industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Princeton Junction, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mistras Group reported revenue of $724M in FY2025 versus $677M in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $16.8M in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2021.
MG screens 31% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Magna International (TSX:MG) Is Up 5.7% After Profit Beat And New EV Deal With Chery - What's Changed
- MISTRAS Group Recognized as a Star by MarketsandMarkets 360Quadrants in the NDT and Inspection Services and Equipment Markets
- Mistras Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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