Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Mistras Group Inc (MG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mistras Group Inc $9.22, price $20.94, upside -56.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN US60649T1079

Some data Sep 23, 2026

Mistras Group Inc

MG · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $9.22 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)

!Quality 50/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

!Trails peers (4/14)

!Narrow moat 40/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on future: 23 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $4.02 to bull $12.17 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 50/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.84 – $20.99 · fair‑value band $4.02 – $12.17 · the $20.94 price screens above the $9.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Mistras Group, Inc. provides technology-enabled industrial asset integrity and laboratory testing solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and South America.

Mistras Group, Inc. provides technology-enabled industrial asset integrity and laboratory testing solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and South America. The company offers non-destructive testing (NDT) services; pipeline inspections; Plant Condition Management Software; maintenance planning; and specialized engineering solutions. It also provides maintenance and light mechanical services, such as corrosion removal, mitigation and prevention, insulation installation and removal, electrical services, heat tracing, industrial cleaning, pipefitting, and welding; engineering consulting services, including plant operations and management support, turnaround/shutdown planning, profit improvement, facilities planning studies, engineering design, process safety reviews, energy optimization evaluations, benchmarking/key performance indicator development, and technical training. In addition, the company offers scaffolding and rope access forb at-height and confined assets; certified divers for subsea inspection and maintenance; unmanned aerial, land-based, and subsea systems for inspection applications; portable, handheld, wireless and turnkey NDT equipment; acoustic emission products and sensors, instruments, and turnkey systems for monitoring and testing materials, pressure components, processes, and structures; and ultrasonic testing equipment. Further, it provides asset protection solutions to detect, mitigate, and prevent degradation mechanisms, such as corrosion, cracking, leaks, and manufacturing defects; inspection, maintenance, and monitoring and data services; and quality assurance and quality control solutions for new and existing metal and alloy components, materials, and composites. It serves renewable energy, alternative power generation, natural gas transportation, data centers, pipeline integrity, and additive manufacturing industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Princeton Junction, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Mistras Group Inc (MG) currently trades at $20.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.22, implying the stock looks roughly 127.1% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.11 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the $20.94 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $3.61, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.02 (bear) to $12.17 (bull), the price of $20.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mistras Group Inc reported revenue of $724M in FY2025 versus $677M in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $16.8M in FY2025, compounding +44.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $671M · P/E ratio 29.9 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 3.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −56%, MG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.02 Fair Value $9.22 Bull $12.17

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5121 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $1.64 $3.68 $6.21 77

Owner Earnings $5.76 $9.23 $13.51 76

Growth DCF $1.74 $3.61 $5.81 76

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $1.64 $3.68 $6.21 77

Owner Earnings $5.76 $9.23 $13.51 76

5Y Revenue Exit $6.47 $13.10 $21.33 70

5Y EBITDA Exit $11.31 $21.68 $33.33 73

5Y P/E Exit $2.41 $5.90 $9.35 68

10Y Revenue Exit $3.97 $9.13 $15.61 64

10Y EBITDA Exit $7.10 $14.42 $23.57 66

10Y P/E Exit $2.02 $4.69 $7.65 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $3.60 $8.35 $10.73 65

PEG = 1.0 $1.42 $2.02 $2.63 57

EPV $7.68 $9.31 $10.67 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple $8.33 $11.11 $13.89 63

P/S Multiple $6.75 $9.00 $11.25 58

P/B Multiple $6.75 $9.00 $11.25 55

EV/EBIT $17.02 $24.13 $31.24 65

EV/EBITDA $21.50 $30.11 $38.71 67

EV/Revenue $10.91 $17.44 $23.96 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.70 $4.96 $7.41 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $1.74 $3.61 $5.81 76

Rev-Margin DCF $6.47 $13.10 $20.11 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $5.66 $5.83 $5.84 71

ROIC Compounder $7.71 $9.79 $11.97 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $6.29 $8.98 $11.67 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 49

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 26

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 36

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 48

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 83

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 52

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 84

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 100

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 65

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 47/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−0.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+1.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.1%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year

Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+25.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+25.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 0%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+44.7%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.4% a year for the price.

MG screens 127% overvalued. Compare with Verisure plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 50 · Below median

Fair Value upside −56% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 6% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 5% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.70× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.9× · Pricier than median

P/B 2.85× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.92× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 80.8× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 9.7× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.10× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34

FUTURE (revenue growth)23 · sector 39

PAST (return on equity)42 · sector 20

HEALTH (low debt)65 · sector 99

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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MSA Safety Incorporated MSA	$178.91	$120.92	−32%
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The Brink's Company BCO	$107.12	$121.18	+13%
Brady Corporation BRC	$83.39	$72.97	−12%
The GEO Group GEO	$29.74	$12.89	−57%
Loomis AB LOOMIS	kr 568.00	kr 496.43	−13%
CoreCivic, Inc CXW	$31.47	$18.76	−40%

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Mistras Group Inc · Fair Value
$9.22 −127%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Mistras Group Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$9.22</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−127%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mistras Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MG

Frequently asked questions

Is Mistras Group Inc (MG) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.22 versus a price of $20.94, about −56% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of MG?

Our model-based fair value for Mistras Group Inc is $9.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.94.

What is the quality score of MG?

Mistras Group Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.02, optimistic scenario $12.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Mistras Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $9.22, about −56% upside versus a price of $20.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.02, optimistic scenario $12.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Mistras Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $731M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mistras Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +44.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MG use?

Our models discount Mistras Group Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mistras Group Inc that is +44.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Mistras Group Inc (MG) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Mistras Group Inc grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +44.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Mistras Group Inc (MG) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mistras Group Inc (+44.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.24 %: that much free cash flow Mistras Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mistras Group Inc it is $9.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $20.94. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Mistras Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, MG trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.94, fair value $9.22, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of MG?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.22). For Mistras Group Inc the two are $11.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Mistras Group Inc worth?

The market values Mistras Group Inc at about $671M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $20.94; our models calculate a fair value of $9.22 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MG?

Our models span a range for Mistras Group Inc: cautious scenario $4.02, base $9.22, optimistic $12.17 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $20.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of MG?

Mistras Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 9.7.

What is the PEG ratio of MG?

The PEG ratio of Mistras Group Inc is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Balance-sheet figures for Mistras Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is MG from its 52-week high?

Mistras Group Inc trades at $20.94, at its 52-week high of $20.99 and 123% above the low of $9.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.22 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Mistras Group Inc?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Mistras Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $20.94, calculated fair value $9.22 (−56%), Quality Score 50/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of MG calculated?

We run Mistras Group Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mistras Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $20.94. Our model-based fair value is $9.22, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Mistras Group Inc right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($4.02 to $12.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Where does the earnings growth of Mistras Group Inc (MG) come from?

Earnings per share at Mistras Group Inc grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mistras Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The market capitalisation of Mistras Group Inc is $671M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Mistras Group Inc is 0.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Earnings per share at Mistras Group Inc are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The net margin of Mistras Group Inc is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Mistras Group Inc is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mistras Group Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

The operating margin of Mistras Group Inc is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Revenue at Mistras Group Inc is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Mistras Group Inc (MG)?

Earnings per share at Mistras Group Inc are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Mistras Group Inc (MG) carry?

The net debt of Mistras Group Inc is $215M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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