Mondi PLC (MNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mondi PLC ZAR 89.95, price ZAR 175, upside -48.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R147.45 – R355.68 · fair‑value band R62.96 – R127.28 · the R175.03 price screens above the R89.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Mondi plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper solutions in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. The company operates through Corrugated Packaging, and Flexible Packaging segments.
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Mondi plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper solutions in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. The company operates through Corrugated Packaging, and Flexible Packaging segments. The Corrugated Packaging segment provides virgin and recycled containerboards for fresh fruit packaging and heavy and fragile goods transport packaging applications; and corrugated solutions, such as corrugated boxes and packaging products. The Flexible Packaging segment offers sack kraft paper, paper bags, specialty kraft paper, consumer flexibles, and functional paper and films. The Uncoated Fine Paper segment provides uncoated fine paper, including home, office, converting, and professional printing papers; and market pulp. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Mondi PLC (MNP) currently trades at R175.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R89.95, 48.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R146.68 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the R175.03 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R84.21, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R62.96 (bear) to R127.28 (bull), the price of R175.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mondi PLC reported revenue of €7.7B in FY2025 versus €7.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was €165M in FY2025, compounding −31.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 77.1B ZAC · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) R7.00 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −49%, MNP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R62.96Fair Value R89.95Bull R127.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.08 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 5%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.8% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+30.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mondi PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MNP
Frequently asked questions
Is Mondi PLC (MNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R89.95 versus a price of R175.03, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNP?
Our model-based fair value for Mondi PLC is R89.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R175.03.
What is the quality score of MNP?
Mondi PLC has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R89.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario R62.96, optimistic scenario R127.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mondi PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R89.95, about −49% upside versus a price of R175.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R62.96, optimistic scenario R127.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Mondi PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Mondi PLC pay a dividend?
Mondi PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mondi PLC (MNP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mondi PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +20.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MNP use?
Our models discount Mondi PLC at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mondi PLC that is +20.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mondi PLC (MNP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mondi PLC grew +2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +20.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mondi PLC (MNP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mondi PLC (+20.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.03 %: that much free cash flow Mondi PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mondi PLC it is R89.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R175.03. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mondi PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MNP trades above its calculated fair value: price R175.03, fair value R89.95, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R175.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R89.95). For Mondi PLC the two are R85.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mondi PLC worth?
The market values Mondi PLC at about 77.1B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R175.03; our models calculate a fair value of R89.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNP?
Our models span a range for Mondi PLC: cautious scenario R62.96, base R89.95, optimistic R127.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R175.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MNP?
Mondi PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R89.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mondi PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNP from its 52-week high?
Mondi PLC trades at R175.03, about 28% below its 52-week high of R242.54 and 19% above the low of R147.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R89.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mondi PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mondi PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R175.03, calculated fair value R89.95 (−49%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MNP calculated?
We run Mondi PLC through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R89.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mondi PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R175.03. Our model-based fair value is R89.95, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mondi PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R127.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R62.96 to R127.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mondi PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The market capitalisation of Mondi PLC is 77.1B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mondi PLC is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Earnings per share at Mondi PLC are R7.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The dividend yield of Mondi PLC is 0.2% (payout 4.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The net margin of Mondi PLC is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mondi PLC is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mondi PLC is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mondi PLC (MNP)?
The operating margin of Mondi PLC is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Revenue at Mondi PLC is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mondi PLC (MNP)?
Earnings per share at Mondi PLC are growing −13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mondi PLC (MNP) carry?
The net debt of Mondi PLC is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026