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Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 6, 2026: fair value of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd £0.04, price £0.06, upside -25.4%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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MP
Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd
MPO · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
Generates free cash flow
Quality 51/100
Fair value £0.0414 · Overvalued (−25.4%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.6 %/yr in GBX)
High debt
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0465 – £0.6900 · fair‑value band £0.0302 – £0.0526 · the £0.0555 price screens above the £0.0414 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Company profile
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited is a closed-end investment company which is only quoted property fund dedicated to investing in Macau, the world's leading gaming market and the only city in China where gaming is legalized. Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited targets strategic property investment and development opportunities in Macau.
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Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited is a closed-end investment company which is only quoted property fund dedicated to investing in Macau, the world's leading gaming market and the only city in China where gaming is legalized. Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited targets strategic property investment and development opportunities in Macau. Its current portfolio comprises prime residential property assets. The Company is managed by Sniper Capital Limited, an Asia-based property investment manager with an established track record in fund management and investment advisory. Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited was founded in 2006 and is registered in Guernsey.
Stock analysis
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) currently trades at £0.0555, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0414, 25.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: £0.0302 (bear) to £0.0526 (bull), the price of £0.0555 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd reported revenue of $4.0M in FY2026 versus −$17.5M in FY2022. Reported net income was −$13.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4M GBX · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) £−0.1600 · Return on equity −54.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.4% · Operating margin −288% · Revenue (TTM) $4.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) −9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −25%, MPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.0302
Fair Value £0.0414
Bull £0.0526
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
£0.1100
£0.1500
£0.2200
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£0.1100
£0.1500
£0.2200
54
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
’07
’08
’09
’13
’14
’17
’18
’21
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.8% (2021) → −330.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.3% a year for the price.
MPO screens overvalued: fair value 25% below the price. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 534 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vonovia SE VNA | €16.31 | €36.55 | +124% | vs MPO |
| Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL | $303.14 | $540.65 | +78% | vs MPO |
| China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 | HK$37.00 | HK$56.36 | +52% | vs MPO |
| Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX | €23.99 | €23.94 | +0% | vs MPO |
| Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 | HK$30.54 | HK$27.42 | −10% | vs MPO |
| CBRE Group CBRE | $134.55 | $91.06 | −32% | vs MPO |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$24.32 | HK$13.39 | −45% | vs MPO |
| KE Holdings BEKE | $16.43 | $7.20 | −56% | vs MPO |
| CoStar Group CSGP | $27.38 | $6.19 | −77% | vs MPO |
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 232,000 VND | 25,731 VND | −89% | vs MPO |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.0414 versus a price of £0.0555, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MPO?
Our model-based fair value for Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is £0.0414 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.0555.
What is the quality score of MPO?
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.0414 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.0302, optimistic scenario £0.0526. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.0414, about −25% upside versus a price of £0.0555 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.0302, optimistic scenario £0.0526. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +72.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPO use?
Our models discount Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd that is +72.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd grew -8.6 % a year. The price currently implies +72.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (+72.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.58 %: that much free cash flow Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd it is £0.0414 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of £0.0555. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MPO trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.0555, fair value £0.0414, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.0555); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.0414). For Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd the two are £0.0141 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd worth?
The market values Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd at about 3.4M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is £0.0555; our models calculate a fair value of £0.0414 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPO?
Our models span a range for Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd: cautious scenario £0.0302, base £0.0414, optimistic £0.0526 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price £0.0555). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −54.1%, debt of 6.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPO from its 52-week high?
Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd trades at £0.0555, about 69% below its 52-week high of £0.1780 and 19% above the low of £0.0465 (as of Oct 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.0414 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price £0.0555, calculated fair value £0.0414 (−25%), Quality Score 51/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPO calculated?
We run Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.0414, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The closing price on Oct 6, 2026 was £0.0555. Our model-based fair value is £0.0414, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.0526). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The market capitalisation of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is 3.4M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Earnings per share at Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd are £−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is −54.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is −12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
The operating margin of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is −288% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO)?
Revenue at Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd (MPO) carry?
The net debt of Macau Property Opportunities Fund Ltd is $2.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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