Strategy Inc (MSTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Strategy Inc MXN 2,521, price MXN 2,897, upside -13.0%, quality 14 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments.
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Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making. In addition, the company provides Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Strategy Inc (MSTR) currently trades at 2,897 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,521 MXN, 13.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 2,375 MXN (bear) to 2,735 MXN (bull), the price of 2,897 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 14/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Strategy Inc reported revenue of $477M in FY2025 versus $499M in FY2022, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.8B in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −13%, MSTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,375 MXNFair Value 2,521 MXNBull 2,735 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.1/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2022) → −8.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Strategy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,521 MXN versus a price of 2,897 MXN, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSTR?
Our model-based fair value for Strategy Inc is 2,521 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,897 MXN.
What is the quality score of MSTR?
Strategy Inc has a Quality Score of 14/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,521 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,375 MXN, optimistic scenario 2,735 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Strategy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,521 MXN, about −13% upside versus a price of 2,897 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,375 MXN, optimistic scenario 2,735 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
Strategy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $490M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Strategy Inc it is 2,521 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 2,897 MXN. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Strategy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MSTR trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,897 MXN, fair value 2,521 MXN, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,897 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,521 MXN). For Strategy Inc the two are 375.86 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Strategy Inc worth?
The market values Strategy Inc at about 904B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 2,897 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 2,521 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSTR?
Our models span a range for Strategy Inc: cautious scenario 2,375 MXN, base 2,521 MXN, optimistic 2,735 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 2,897 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MSTR from its 52-week high?
Strategy Inc trades at 2,897 MXN, about 56% below its 52-week high of 6,544 MXN and 100% above the low of 1,446 MXN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,521 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Strategy Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Strategy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 2,897 MXN, calculated fair value 2,521 MXN (−13%), Quality Score 14/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSTR calculated?
We run Strategy Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,521 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Strategy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,897 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 2,521 MXN, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Strategy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,735 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Strategy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
The market capitalisation of Strategy Inc is 904B MXN (≈ $49.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
Earnings per share at Strategy Inc are −648.04 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Strategy Inc is −30.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Strategy Inc is 0.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
The operating margin of Strategy Inc is −11,642% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Strategy Inc (MSTR)?
Revenue at Strategy Inc is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Strategy Inc (MSTR) generate?
The free cash flow of Strategy Inc is −$22.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Strategy Inc (MSTR) carry?
The net debt of Strategy Inc is $5.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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