Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Paul Mueller Co stock $575, price $416, upside +38.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.23 – $528.53 · fair‑value band $370.83 – $838.00 · the $416.00 price screens below the $575.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Paul Mueller Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides manufactured equipment and components in the United States, North America, the Netherlands, Europe, and internationally.
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It operates through four reportable segments: Refrigeration and Heat Transfer, Industrial Equipment, Transportation, and European Operations.
The Refrigeration and Heat Transfer segment provides milk cooling and storage equipment and accessories, refrigeration units, and heat recovery equipment and heat transfer products for use on dairy farms to independent dairy farm dealers; and services for farmers, as well as milk coolers for rent to farmers.
The Industrial Equipment segment sells stainless steel, alloy processing, storage tanks, and pure water equipment. The Transportation segment offers delivery of products to customers; backhauls of materials and components; and contract carriage for third parties.
The European Operations segment provides milk cooling and storage; and process tanks and heat transfer products.
It serves its products in various industries, such as animal health, beverage, brewing, chemical, dairy farm, dairy processing, food, heat transfer, HVAC, industrial construction, oil and gas, personal care, pharmaceuticals, pure water, tank fabrication, and wine.
Paul Mueller Company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
Stock analysis
Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) currently trades at $416.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $575.25, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $701.57 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $416.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $288.37, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $370.83 (bear) to $838.00 (bull), the price of $416.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Paul Mueller Co reported revenue of $287M in FY2025 versus $185M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $34.7M in FY2025, compounding +49.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $374M Small · P/E ratio 2.2 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $189.52 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 30.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 38%, MUEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$370.83Fair Value $575.25Bull$838.00
Price $416.00 · Upside +38.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($161.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $29.9M and none bought.
SaleJohn B HansenDirector3× since Feb 9, 2026: 6,444 shares, avg. $71.56$461,148Nov 2, 2026
SaleScott Jay GoldmanDirector4× since Nov 25, 2025: 12,664 shares, avg. $108.26$1.4MAug 27, 2026
SaleJeffrey Andrew MartinEVP, CFO & Treasurer86,209 shares at $67.03$5.8MAug 13, 2026
SaleGregory L. ChristopherChairman of the Board & CEO, Director2× since Apr 27, 2026: 443,266 shares, avg. $84.74$37.6MAug 11, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+62.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+61.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44.5% vs 19.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 15%
2025 sits 122% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+38.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paul Mueller Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MUEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $575.25 versus a price of $416.00, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MUEL?
Our model-based fair value for Paul Mueller Co is $575.25 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $416.00.
What is the quality score of MUEL?
Paul Mueller Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $575.25 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $370.83, optimistic scenario $838.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paul Mueller Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $575.25, about +38% upside versus a price of $416.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $370.83, optimistic scenario $838.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Paul Mueller Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $316M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Paul Mueller Co pay a dividend?
Paul Mueller Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Paul Mueller Co pays a dividend of $1.20 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 0.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 23.69 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paul Mueller Co would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MUEL use?
Our models discount Paul Mueller Co at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paul Mueller Co that is +2.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paul Mueller Co grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paul Mueller Co (+2.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.83 %: that much free cash flow Paul Mueller Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paul Mueller Co it is $575.25 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $416.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Paul Mueller Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, MUEL trades below its calculated fair value: price $416.00, fair value $575.25, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MUEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($416.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($575.25). For Paul Mueller Co the two are $159.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paul Mueller Co worth?
The market values Paul Mueller Co at about $374M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $416.00; our models calculate a fair value of $575.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MUEL?
Our models span a range for Paul Mueller Co: cautious scenario $370.83, base $575.25, optimistic $838.00 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $416.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MUEL?
Paul Mueller Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $575.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paul Mueller Co (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 30.9%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MUEL from its 52-week high?
Paul Mueller Co trades at $416.00, about 19% below its 52-week high of $514.28 and 16% above the low of $359.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $575.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paul Mueller Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paul Mueller Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $416.00, calculated fair value $575.25 (+38%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MUEL calculated?
We run Paul Mueller Co through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $575.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Paul Mueller Co currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $416.00. Our model-based fair value is $575.25, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paul Mueller Co right now?
Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($370.83 to $838.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) come from?
Earnings per share at Paul Mueller Co grew +18.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +8.9 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Paul Mueller Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The market capitalisation of Paul Mueller Co is $374M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paul Mueller Co is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Earnings per share at Paul Mueller Co are $189.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The dividend yield of Paul Mueller Co is 0.3% (payout 0.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The net margin of Paul Mueller Co is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paul Mueller Co is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paul Mueller Co is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
The operating margin of Paul Mueller Co is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Revenue at Paul Mueller Co is growing +29.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paul Mueller Co (MUEL)?
Earnings per share at Paul Mueller Co are growing −28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Paul Mueller Co (MUEL) hold?
Paul Mueller Co holds more cash than debt, $22.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026