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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. BRL 107, price BRL 97.20, upside +9.7%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · BR · Home US

AC Some data Sep 29, 2026

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

N2LY34 · SA

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value R$106.60 · Fairly valued (+9.7%)
!Quality 27/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +29.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 87.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!2.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$123.68 R$0.0187 Fair Value R$106.60 Feb 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range R$0.0187 – R$123.68 · fair‑value band R$89.91 – R$124.36 · the R$97.20 price screens below the R$106.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business.

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Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency commercial mortgage-backed securities; to-be-announced forward contracts; residential mortgage-backed securities; residential mortgage loans; and agency or private label credit risk transfer securities. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34) currently trades at R$97.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$106.60, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$215.94 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the R$97.20 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at R$60.96, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$89.91 (bear) to R$124.36 (bull), the price of R$97.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. reported revenue of $7.1B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2022, a compound +29.4%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$86.0B (≈ $16.5B) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) R$15.90 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 28.4% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 150% fair-value upside, at 10%, N2LY34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$89.91 Fair Value R$106.60 Bull R$124.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$9.91 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$108.38 R$127.38 R$166.96 71
Gordon GGM R$123.17 R$256.09 R$406.26 62
DDM Multi-Stage R$123.17 R$215.94 R$268.77 62
All 7 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$123.17 R$256.09 R$406.26 62
DDM Multi-Stage R$123.17 R$215.94 R$268.77 62
Multiples
P/S Multiple R$45.72 R$60.96 R$76.20 58
P/B Multiple R$184.21 R$245.61 R$307.01 55
EV/EBIT n/a R$35.35 R$100.93 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$57.34 R$76.83 R$114.67 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$108.38 R$127.38 R$166.96 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 29%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +3.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 87.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 81.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 48.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.00× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 6.59× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)39 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)58 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $9.45 $23.63 +150%
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $14.36 $35.90 +150%
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.12 $12.95 +42%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $11.34 $10.73 −5%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $14.10 $23.05 +63%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT $12.31 $30.78 +150%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.83 $13.08 +11%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $5.77 $14.43 +150%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.72 $7.60 −13%
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI $6.24 $15.60 +150%

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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · Fair Value
R$106.60 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/N2LY34

Frequently asked questions

Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$106.60 versus a price of R$97.20, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of N2LY34?
Our model-based fair value for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is R$106.60 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$97.20.
What is the quality score of N2LY34?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$106.60 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$89.91, optimistic scenario R$124.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$106.60, about +10% upside versus a price of R$97.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$89.91, optimistic scenario R$124.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. pay a dividend?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Annaly Capital Management, Inc. it is R$106.60 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$97.20. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, N2LY34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$97.20, fair value R$106.60, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of N2LY34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$97.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$106.60). For Annaly Capital Management, Inc. the two are R$9.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. worth?
The market values Annaly Capital Management, Inc. at about R$86.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$97.20; our models calculate a fair value of R$106.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about N2LY34?
Our models span a range for Annaly Capital Management, Inc.: cautious scenario R$89.91, base R$106.60, optimistic R$124.36 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$97.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of N2LY34?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$106.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 2.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is N2LY34 from its 52-week high?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. trades at R$97.20, about 21% below its 52-week high of R$123.68 and at the low of R$97.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$106.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Annaly Capital Management, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$97.20, calculated fair value R$106.60 (+10%), Quality Score 27/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of N2LY34 calculated?
We run Annaly Capital Management, Inc. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$106.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$97.20. Our model-based fair value is R$106.60, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Annaly Capital Management, Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The market capitalisation of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is R$86.0B (≈ $16.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 1.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Earnings per share at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. are R$15.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The dividend yield of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 2.9% (payout 17.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The net margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 28.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 0.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
The operating margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 81.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Revenue at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is growing +48.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34)?
Earnings per share at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. are growing +123% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34) generate?
The free cash flow of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is −$222M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (N2LY34) carry?
The net debt of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is $31.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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