Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Light Metal Holdings stock €14.74, price €14.81, upside -0.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.47 – €17.41 · fair‑value band €7.11 – €19.21 · the €14.81 price screens above the €14.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Nippon Light Metal Holdings Company, Ltd. manufactures and sells aluminum products and related products in Japan and internationally.
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The company operates in four segments: Alumina, Chemical products, Bullion; Plate, Extruded products; Processed products and related businesses; and Foil and Powder Products Business.
It develops and manufactures various chemicals, including alumina and aluminum hydroxide, as well as aluminum alloys; aluminum sheet metal and extruded aluminum profiles, and supplies to various fields.
The company also develops and manufactures aluminum foil, powder, and paste products; and develops, manufactures, and supply products for various fields, including automobiles, truck bodies, railways, building materials, food products, and cleanrooms.
Nippon Light Metal Holdings Company, Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) currently trades at €14.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.74, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €24.43 per share, and 11 of the 21 models we run sit above the €14.81 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.84, and 10 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €7.11 (bear) to €19.21 (bull), the price of €14.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nippon Light Metal Holdings reported revenue of ¥585B in FY2026 versus ¥487B in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥15.6B in FY2026, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €912M Small · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) €1.77 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 0%, N9L screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€7.11Fair Value €14.74Bull€19.21
Price €14.81 · Upside -0.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.7570 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+32.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 23.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
2026 sits 58% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.1% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Nippon Light Metal Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−0.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Light Metal Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/N9L
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.74 versus a price of €14.81, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of N9L?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Light Metal Holdings is €14.74 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14.81.
What is the quality score of N9L?
Nippon Light Metal Holdings has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.74 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.11, optimistic scenario €19.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Light Metal Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.74, about −0% upside versus a price of €14.81 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €7.11, optimistic scenario €19.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Nippon Light Metal Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥615B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Nippon Light Metal Holdings pay a dividend?
Nippon Light Metal Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Light Metal Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +36.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of N9L use?
Our models discount Nippon Light Metal Holdings at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Light Metal Holdings that is +36.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Light Metal Holdings grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +36.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Light Metal Holdings (+36.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.27 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Light Metal Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Light Metal Holdings it is €14.74 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of €14.81. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Light Metal Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, N9L trades above its calculated fair value: price €14.81, fair value €14.74, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of N9L?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.74). For Nippon Light Metal Holdings the two are €0.0731 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Light Metal Holdings worth?
The market values Nippon Light Metal Holdings at about €912M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is €14.81; our models calculate a fair value of €14.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about N9L?
Our models span a range for Nippon Light Metal Holdings: cautious scenario €7.11, base €14.74, optimistic €19.21 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price €14.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of N9L?
Nippon Light Metal Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Light Metal Holdings (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is N9L from its 52-week high?
Nippon Light Metal Holdings trades at €14.81, about 15% below its 52-week high of €17.40 and 32% above the low of €11.25 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Light Metal Holdings?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Light Metal Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price €14.81, calculated fair value €14.74 (−0%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of N9L calculated?
We run Nippon Light Metal Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Light Metal Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €14.81. Our model-based fair value is €14.74, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Light Metal Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€7.11 to €19.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Nippon Light Metal Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is €912M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Light Metal Holdings are €1.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 3.1% (payout 25.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The net margin of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 2.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
The operating margin of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Revenue at Nippon Light Metal Holdings is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Light Metal Holdings are growing +43.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Light Metal Holdings (N9L) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Light Metal Holdings is ¥133B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 36.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026