National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of National Aluminium Company Limited ₹476, price ₹363, upside +31.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹52.96 – ₹441.50 · fair‑value band ₹324.70 – ₹624.02 · the ₹363.45 price screens below the ₹476.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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National Aluminium Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of alumina and aluminum products in India and internationally. The company operates through Chemical and Aluminum segments.
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National Aluminium Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of alumina and aluminum products in India and internationally. The company operates through Chemical and Aluminum segments. It offers aluminum metal products, such as ingots, alloy ingots, T-ingots, sows, billets, and wire rods; alumina and hydrate products, including calcined alumina and alumina hydrate; zeolite-A products; specialty alumina and hydrate products; and aluminum rolled and aluminum chequered sheets products. The company also owns and operates Coal Mine covering an area of 824.316 hectors situated in Chhendipada Tehsil of Angul District; an opencast mine covering an area of 16 square kilometers on Panchpatmali hills of Koraput district in Odisha; a wind power plant with 50.4 MW of generation capacity in Gandikota, Andhra Pradesh; a wind power plant with 47.6 MW of generation capacity at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan; a wind power plant with 50 MW of generation capacity at Devikot, Rajasthan; a wind power plant with 50.4 MW of generation capacity at Sangli, Maharashtra; and a solar power plant in Bhubaneswar, as well as alumina refinery and aluminum smelter plants and captive power plant. In addition, it owns and operates mechanized storage and ship handling facilities for exporting alumina and importing caustic soda. National Aluminium Company Limited was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Bhubaneswar, India.
Stock analysis
National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) currently trades at ₹363.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹476.07, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹546.05 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹363.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹78.81, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹324.70 (bear) to ₹624.02 (bull), the price of ₹363.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
National Aluminium Company Limited reported revenue of ₹178B in FY2026 versus ₹142B in FY2022, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹58.0B in FY2026, compounding +18.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹668B (≈ $6.9B) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 3.53 · EPS (TTM) ₹33.45 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 32.5% · Return on equity 29.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 32.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 31%, NATIONALUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹324.70Fair Value ₹476.07Bull ₹624.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹10.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.35% vs 26%, picking up
Profit margin 2004 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 40%
2026 sits 192% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.6% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+31% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Aluminium Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NATIONALUM
Frequently asked questions
Is National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹476.07 versus a price of ₹363.45, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NATIONALUM?
Our model-based fair value for National Aluminium Company Limited is ₹476.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹363.45.
What is the quality score of NATIONALUM?
National Aluminium Company Limited has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹476.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹324.70, optimistic scenario ₹624.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Aluminium Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹476.07, about +31% upside versus a price of ₹363.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹324.70, optimistic scenario ₹624.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
National Aluminium Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹185B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does National Aluminium Company Limited pay a dividend?
National Aluminium Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Aluminium Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NATIONALUM use?
Our models discount National Aluminium Company Limited at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Aluminium Company Limited that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Aluminium Company Limited grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Aluminium Company Limited (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.28 %: that much free cash flow National Aluminium Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Aluminium Company Limited it is ₹476.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹363.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Aluminium Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NATIONALUM trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹363.45, fair value ₹476.07, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NATIONALUM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹363.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹476.07). For National Aluminium Company Limited the two are ₹112.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Aluminium Company Limited worth?
The market values National Aluminium Company Limited at about ₹668B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹363.45; our models calculate a fair value of ₹476.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NATIONALUM?
Our models span a range for National Aluminium Company Limited: cautious scenario ₹324.70, base ₹476.07, optimistic ₹624.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹363.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NATIONALUM?
National Aluminium Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹476.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Aluminium Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 29.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NATIONALUM from its 52-week high?
National Aluminium Company Limited trades at ₹363.45, about 18% below its 52-week high of ₹441.50 and 87% above the low of ₹194.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹476.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Aluminium Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Aluminium Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹363.45, calculated fair value ₹476.07 (+31%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NATIONALUM calculated?
We run National Aluminium Company Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹476.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. National Aluminium Company Limited currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹363.45. Our model-based fair value is ₹476.07, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Aluminium Company Limited right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (₹324.70 to ₹624.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) come from?
Earnings per share at National Aluminium Company Limited grew +22.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Aluminium Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The market capitalisation of National Aluminium Company Limited is ₹668B (≈ $6.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Aluminium Company Limited is 3.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Earnings per share at National Aluminium Company Limited are ₹33.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The dividend yield of National Aluminium Company Limited is 3.0% (payout 32.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The net margin of National Aluminium Company Limited is 32.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Aluminium Company Limited is 29.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Aluminium Company Limited is 32.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
The operating margin of National Aluminium Company Limited is 42.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Revenue at National Aluminium Company Limited is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)?
Earnings per share at National Aluminium Company Limited are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM) hold?
National Aluminium Company Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹83.5B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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