Nick Scali Limited (NCK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$1.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from A$11.13 (bear) to A$18.54 (bull), base A$14.84. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$5.78 – A$25.18 · fair‑value band A$11.13 – A$18.54 · the A$17.11 price screens above the A$14.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Nick Scali Limited (NCK) currently trades at A$17.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$14.84, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nick Scali Limited generated revenue of A$513M at a net margin of 13.4%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.2%. Net debt stands at A$215M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$11.13 (bear case) to A$18.54 (bull case); at A$17.11, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -13%, NCK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$18.77) versus Asset-Based (A$2.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nick Scali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.
Full company description
Nick Scali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The company offers recliner, leather, fabric, and quick ship sofas, as well as occasional armchairs and ottomans; TV and entertainment units; coffee, side, and console and hallway tables; dining tables and chairs, and buffet tables and sideboards; mattresses, bed frames, bedside tables, tallboy, dressers, and daybeds; and rugs, mirrors, and care products. It sells its products through a showroom network of stores, as well as online. Nick Scali Limited was incorporated in 1962 and is based in North Ryde, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nick Scali Limited reported revenue of A$495M in FY2025 versus A$373M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$57.7M in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.
NCK screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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