Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nitto Denko Corporation $19.21, price $21.40, upside -10.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.10 – $25.20 · fair‑value band $14.44 – $26.28 · the $21.40 price screens above the $19.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Nitto Denko Corporation primarily engages in the adhesive tapes business in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and internationally.
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Nitto Denko Corporation primarily engages in the adhesive tapes business in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It provides double sided tape, surface protective film, sealing materials, masking tape, materials for housing and construction, semiconductor manufacturing process products, tape for electrical and electronic equipment, fluoroplastic sheets and tape NITOFLON, fluoroplastic porous film TEMISH, porous sheet/breathable material, packaging tape, and functional thermal transfer system. The company also offers FPD/touch panel related products, and flexible printed circuit boards. In addition, it provides membrane products; medical products, including transdermal therapeutic systems, athletic tapes, medical adhesive tapes for wearable devices and body sensors, adhesive tapes, and particles for nucleic acid synthesis; and hygiene products, as well as flexible angular displacement sensor products. The company offers its products to automotive and transportation, housing/housing equipment, infrastructure, material, home appliance and electrical, display, electronic device, medical, packaging, and consumer/personal care industries. Nitto Denko Corporation was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) currently trades at $21.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.21, 10.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.67 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $21.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.98, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.44 (bear) to $26.28 (bull), the price of $21.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nitto Denko Corporation reported revenue of ¥1.0T in FY2026 versus ¥853B in FY2022, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥134B in FY2026, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) $1.23 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −10%, NDEKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.44Fair Value $19.21Bull $26.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.9% vs −8.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 18%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (19 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Nitto Denko Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 681 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−2.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.21 versus a price of $21.40, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NDEKF?
Our model-based fair value for Nitto Denko Corporation is $19.21 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.40.
What is the quality score of NDEKF?
Nitto Denko Corporation has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.21 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $26.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nitto Denko Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.21, about −10% upside versus a price of $21.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $26.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Nitto Denko Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.0T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Nitto Denko Corporation pay a dividend?
Nitto Denko Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nitto Denko Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NDEKF use?
Our models discount Nitto Denko Corporation at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nitto Denko Corporation that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nitto Denko Corporation grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nitto Denko Corporation (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.20 %: that much free cash flow Nitto Denko Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nitto Denko Corporation it is $19.21 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $21.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nitto Denko Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, NDEKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.40, fair value $19.21, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDEKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.21). For Nitto Denko Corporation the two are $2.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nitto Denko Corporation worth?
The market values Nitto Denko Corporation at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $21.40; our models calculate a fair value of $19.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDEKF?
Our models span a range for Nitto Denko Corporation: cautious scenario $14.44, base $19.21, optimistic $26.28 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $21.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDEKF?
Nitto Denko Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NDEKF?
The PEG ratio of Nitto Denko Corporation is 2.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nitto Denko Corporation (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDEKF from its 52-week high?
Nitto Denko Corporation trades at $21.40, about 15% below its 52-week high of $25.20 and 21% above the low of $17.72 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nitto Denko Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nitto Denko Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $21.40, calculated fair value $19.21 (−10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDEKF calculated?
We run Nitto Denko Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nitto Denko Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $21.40. Our model-based fair value is $19.21, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nitto Denko Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($14.44 to $26.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nitto Denko Corporation grew −6.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.6 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nitto Denko Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The market capitalisation of Nitto Denko Corporation is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nitto Denko Corporation is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Earnings per share at Nitto Denko Corporation are $1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The dividend yield of Nitto Denko Corporation is 2.3% (payout 39.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The net margin of Nitto Denko Corporation is 13.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nitto Denko Corporation is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nitto Denko Corporation is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
The operating margin of Nitto Denko Corporation is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Revenue at Nitto Denko Corporation is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF)?
Earnings per share at Nitto Denko Corporation are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKF) hold?
Nitto Denko Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥362B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026