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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited $0.96, price $0.78, upside +23.1%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited
NDGPF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $0.9601 · Undervalued (+23.1%)
!Quality 29/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1167 – $1.87 · fair‑value band $0.7510 – $1.22 · the $0.7800 price screens below the $0.9601 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China.
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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China. The company offers kraft, test, white top, and coated linerboard, as well as bleached folding boxboard; corrugating medium; uncoated wood free and office paper; coated duplex board; and gypsum board cover paper. It also provides container board, kraft paper, and packaging products; corrugated sheet, cardboard, and carton box; kraft paper bag; color printing; and laminated paper products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, the People's Republic of China. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of Best Result Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) currently trades at $0.7800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9601, implying the stock looks roughly 18.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $7.83 per share, and 11 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.7800 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.98, and 1 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.7510 (bear) to $1.22 (bull), the price of $0.7800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of $63.2B in FY2025 versus $61.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Dividend yield 11.1% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 23%, NDGPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7510
Fair Value $0.9601
Bull $1.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1000 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
n/a
n/a
$3.41
73
Residual Income
$7.91
$7.83
$8.15
71
EPV
n/a
n/a
$0.1200
68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
n/a
n/a
$3.41
73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.14
$10.59
$14.19
64
Lynch FV
$2.42
$3.45
$4.49
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.42
$3.45
$4.49
57
EPV
n/a
n/a
$0.1200
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.89
$7.85
$9.82
63
P/S Multiple
$5.89
$7.85
$9.82
58
P/B Multiple
$5.89
$7.85
$9.82
55
EV/EBIT
$0.0500
$2.98
$5.92
56
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$0.7100
>$2.84
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
$2.14
$5.41
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.34
$7.15
$10.68
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.91
$7.83
$8.15
71
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
$0.1200
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.15
$7.35
$9.56
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
29/100
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Profitability
22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
6
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.6% vs 2.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥17.74 | ¥18.80 | +6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9601 versus a price of $0.7800, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NDGPF?
Our model-based fair value for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is $0.9601 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7800.
What is the quality score of NDGPF?
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9601 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7510, optimistic scenario $1.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9601, about +23% upside versus a price of $0.7800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7510, optimistic scenario $1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $67.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited pay a dividend?
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited it is $0.9601 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7800. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NDGPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7800, fair value $0.9601, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDGPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9601). For Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited the two are $0.1801 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited worth?
The market values Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9601 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDGPF?
Our models span a range for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited: cautious scenario $0.7510, base $0.9601, optimistic $1.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDGPF?
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.9601 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDGPF from its 52-week high?
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited trades at $0.7800, about 37% below its 52-week high of $1.23 and 20% above the low of $0.6500 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9601 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, The Navigator Company, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7800, calculated fair value $0.9601 (+23%), Quality Score 29/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDGPF calculated?
We run Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9601, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7800. Our model-based fair value is $0.9601, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited grew −0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −8.7 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The market capitalisation of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The dividend yield of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 11.1% (payout 86.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The net margin of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
The operating margin of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Revenue at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF)?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited are growing +319% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is −$1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (NDGPF) carry?
The net debt of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is $66.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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