Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nelcast Limited ₹96.07, price ₹121, upside -20.6%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹34.57 – ₹176.02 · fair‑value band ₹71.06 – ₹125.87 · the ₹121.03 price screens above the ₹96.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Nelcast Limited manufactures and sells ductile and grey iron castings in India and internationally.
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Nelcast Limited manufactures and sells ductile and grey iron castings in India and internationally. The company provides commercial components, including bogie suspension bracket, conventional suspension/engine/steering/cab mounting bracket, rear and forward differential carrier, flanged and plain half, wheel hub, bearing cap, brake drum, and brake disc rotor products; and tractor/farm components, such as hydraulic lift cover, axle housing, four-wheel drive front axle housing, front engine support, transmission clutch, and center/differential housing products. It also offers off highway/army components, including transmission and differential case, converter and axle housing, and planetary carrier products; railway products comprising brake discs and base plates for ballastless track system; SUV/car components that consist of case body, case cap, and drive head products; and powertrain components, such as gearbox and flywheel housing, and exhaust manifold products. The company serves commercial vehicle, tractor, railways, and off-highway vehicle segments, as well as original equipment manufacturers. Nelcast Limited was incorporated in 1982 and is based in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) currently trades at ₹121.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹96.07, 20.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹128.19 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹121.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹45.95, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹71.06 (bear) to ₹125.87 (bull), the price of ₹121.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nelcast Limited reported revenue of ₹13.3B in FY2026 versus ₹9.2B in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹484M in FY2026, compounding +35.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹10.5B (≈ $109M) · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.71 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −21%, NELCAST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹71.06Fair Value ₹96.07Bull ₹125.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.8% vs 4.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 253 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nelcast Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NELCAST
Frequently asked questions
Is Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹96.07 versus a price of ₹121.03, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NELCAST?
Our model-based fair value for Nelcast Limited is ₹96.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹121.03.
What is the quality score of NELCAST?
Nelcast Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹96.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹71.06, optimistic scenario ₹125.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nelcast Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹96.07, about −21% upside versus a price of ₹121.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹71.06, optimistic scenario ₹125.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Nelcast Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹13.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Nelcast Limited pay a dividend?
Nelcast Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nelcast Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NELCAST use?
Our models discount Nelcast Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nelcast Limited that is +24.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nelcast Limited grew +16.8 % a year. The price currently implies +24.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nelcast Limited (+24.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.48 %: that much free cash flow Nelcast Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nelcast Limited it is ₹96.07 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹121.03. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nelcast Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, NELCAST trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹121.03, fair value ₹96.07, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NELCAST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹121.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹96.07). For Nelcast Limited the two are ₹24.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nelcast Limited worth?
The market values Nelcast Limited at about ₹10.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹121.03; our models calculate a fair value of ₹96.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NELCAST?
Our models span a range for Nelcast Limited: cautious scenario ₹71.06, base ₹96.07, optimistic ₹125.87 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹121.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NELCAST?
Nelcast Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹96.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nelcast Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NELCAST from its 52-week high?
Nelcast Limited trades at ₹121.03, about 24% below its 52-week high of ₹160.22 and 37% above the low of ₹88.19 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹96.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nelcast Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nelcast Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹121.03, calculated fair value ₹96.07 (−21%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NELCAST calculated?
We run Nelcast Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹96.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nelcast Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹121.03. Our model-based fair value is ₹96.07, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nelcast Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) come from?
Earnings per share at Nelcast Limited grew +5.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nelcast Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The market capitalisation of Nelcast Limited is ₹10.5B (≈ $109M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nelcast Limited is 0.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Earnings per share at Nelcast Limited are ₹4.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The dividend yield of Nelcast Limited is 0.4% (payout 10.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The net margin of Nelcast Limited is 3.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nelcast Limited is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nelcast Limited is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
The operating margin of Nelcast Limited is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Revenue at Nelcast Limited is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nelcast Limited (NELCAST)?
Earnings per share at Nelcast Limited are growing −59.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) carry?
The net debt of Nelcast Limited is ₹1.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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