National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.7B
National Fuel Gas Company
NFG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($37.71 to $97.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.42 – $95.30 · fair‑value band $37.71 – $97.94 · the $80.54 price screens above the $48.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) currently trades at $80.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.93, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Fuel Gas Company generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 27.4%. Revenue grew 17.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.8%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.71 (bear case) to $97.94 (bull case); at $80.54, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -39%, NFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($75.34) versus Growth DCF ($1.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil.
Full company description
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and storage services through its underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports and stores natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers; and provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York, as well as in Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Fuel Gas Company reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
NFG screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is National Fuel Gas (NFG) Cheap As Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Reset Valuation?
- National Fuel Gas Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
- National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Long-Term Growth Outlook ...
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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