National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of National Fuel Gas Company $48.18, price $78.61, upside -38.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.42 – $95.30 · fair‑value band $37.12 – $71.34 · the $78.61 price screens above the $48.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil.
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National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and storage services through its underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports and stores natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers; and provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York, as well as in Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Stock analysis
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) currently trades at $78.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.18, implying the stock looks roughly 63.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $75.34 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $78.61 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $18.75, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $37.12 (bear) to $71.34 (bull), the price of $78.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
National Fuel Gas Company reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.2B · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) $7.40 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 22.8% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −39%, NFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $37.12Fair Value $48.18Bull $71.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +11.6% for the forecasts.
Compare National Fuel Gas Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.86× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF38.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.2× · Pricier than median
PEG1.55× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)88· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)83· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Fuel Gas Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NFG
Frequently asked questions
Is National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.18 versus a price of $78.61, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NFG?
Our model-based fair value for National Fuel Gas Company is $48.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.61.
What is the quality score of NFG?
National Fuel Gas Company has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.12, optimistic scenario $71.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Fuel Gas Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.18, about −39% upside versus a price of $78.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $37.12, optimistic scenario $71.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
National Fuel Gas Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does National Fuel Gas Company pay a dividend?
National Fuel Gas Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Fuel Gas Company would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NFG use?
Our models discount National Fuel Gas Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Fuel Gas Company that is +24.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Fuel Gas Company grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +24.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Fuel Gas Company (+24.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.61 %: that much free cash flow National Fuel Gas Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Fuel Gas Company it is $48.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $78.61. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Fuel Gas Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $78.61, fair value $48.18, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($78.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.18). For National Fuel Gas Company the two are $30.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Fuel Gas Company worth?
The market values National Fuel Gas Company at about $7.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $78.61; our models calculate a fair value of $48.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NFG?
Our models span a range for National Fuel Gas Company: cautious scenario $37.12, base $48.18, optimistic $71.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $78.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NFG?
National Fuel Gas Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NFG?
The PEG ratio of National Fuel Gas Company is 1.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Fuel Gas Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.8%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NFG from its 52-week high?
National Fuel Gas Company trades at $78.61, about 18% below its 52-week high of $95.30 and 4% above the low of $75.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Fuel Gas Company?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Fuel Gas Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $78.61, calculated fair value $48.18 (−39%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NFG calculated?
We run National Fuel Gas Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. National Fuel Gas Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $78.61. Our model-based fair value is $48.18, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Fuel Gas Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($71.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($37.12 to $71.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of National Fuel Gas Company
How large is the market capitalisation of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The market capitalisation of National Fuel Gas Company is $7.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Fuel Gas Company is 2.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Earnings per share at National Fuel Gas Company are $7.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The dividend yield of National Fuel Gas Company is 2.7% (payout 28.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The net margin of National Fuel Gas Company is 22.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Fuel Gas Company is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Fuel Gas Company is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
The operating margin of National Fuel Gas Company is 42.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Revenue at National Fuel Gas Company is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
Earnings per share at National Fuel Gas Company are growing +9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) carry?
The net debt of National Fuel Gas Company is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026