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Noble Helium Ltd (NHE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Noble Helium Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.03, upside -15.0%, quality 9 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000210940

NH Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Noble Helium Ltd

NHE · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0255 · Overvalued (−15%)
!Quality 9/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.8 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 13 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3950 A$0.0090 Fair Value A$0.0255 Apr 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

54‑month range A$0.0090 – A$0.3950 · fair‑value band A$0.0255 – A$0.0306 · the A$0.0300 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Noble Helium Limited engages in the exploration of helium projects in the United Republic of Tanzania. Its flagship project is the 100% owned the North Rukwa project with 12 granted prospecting licenses covering a combined area of approximately 1,467 square kilometers located in south-west Tanzania.

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Noble Helium Limited engages in the exploration of helium projects in the United Republic of Tanzania. Its flagship project is the 100% owned the North Rukwa project with 12 granted prospecting licenses covering a combined area of approximately 1,467 square kilometers located in south-west Tanzania. Noble Helium Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Noble Helium Ltd (NHE) currently trades at A$0.0300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 17.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0255 (bear) to A$0.0306 (bull), the price of A$0.0300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 9/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Noble Helium Ltd reported revenue of A$21.8K in FY2025 versus A$23.9K in FY2020, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$20.6M · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.0% · Operating margin −69,176% · Revenue (TTM) A$23.3K · Revenue growth (YoY) +193% · Free cash flow −A$6.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −15%, NHE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0255 Fair Value A$0.0255 Bull A$0.0306
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 9/100

Of which business quality 14 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+185.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,381.5% (2020) → −21,112.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NHE screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 709 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 14 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 193% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Linde plc LIN $469.72 $441.28 −6%
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $326.46 $148.97 −54%
Ecolab Inc ECL $276.72 $96.18 −65%
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $286.97 $122.14 −57%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 238.00 TWD 235.25 TWD −1%
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 3,406 CHF 1,523 −55%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥71.60 ¥68.03 −5%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,455 ₹1,479 −40%
Sika AG SIKA CHF 182.10 CHF 98.89 −46%
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $107.20 $77.06 −28%

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A$0.0255 −18%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Noble Helium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NHE

Frequently asked questions

Is Noble Helium Ltd (NHE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.0300, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NHE?
Our model-based fair value for Noble Helium Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0300.
What is the quality score of NHE?
Noble Helium Ltd has a Quality Score of 9/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0306. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Noble Helium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −15% upside versus a price of A$0.0300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0306. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Noble Helium Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$23.3K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Noble Helium Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Noble Helium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NHE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0300, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Noble Helium Ltd the two are A$0.0045 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Noble Helium Ltd worth?
The market values Noble Helium Ltd at about A$20.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0300; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHE?
Our models span a range for Noble Helium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0255, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0306 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Noble Helium Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −16.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 9/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NHE from its 52-week high?
Noble Helium Ltd trades at A$0.0300, about 39% below its 52-week high of A$0.0490 and 30% above the low of A$0.0230 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Noble Helium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Noble Helium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0300, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−15%), Quality Score 9/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHE calculated?
We run Noble Helium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Noble Helium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0300. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Noble Helium Ltd right now?
Weak quality (9/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Noble Helium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
The market capitalisation of Noble Helium Ltd is A$20.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Earnings per share at Noble Helium Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Noble Helium Ltd is −16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Noble Helium Ltd is −19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
The operating margin of Noble Helium Ltd is −69,176% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Noble Helium Ltd (NHE)?
Revenue at Noble Helium Ltd is growing +193% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Noble Helium Ltd (NHE) generate?
The free cash flow of Noble Helium Ltd is −A$6.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Noble Helium Ltd (NHE) carry?
The net debt of Noble Helium Ltd is A$5.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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