Nicoccino Holding (NICO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SE · Market cap 37.0M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from kr 1.07 to kr 0.1300 (−87.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.1900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 0.1000 to kr 0.1900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 0.6350 – kr 4.77 · fair‑value band kr 0.1000 – kr 0.1900 · the kr 1.03 price screens above the kr 0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Nicoccino Holding (NICO) currently trades at kr 1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 87.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 889K SEK. Revenue grew 181.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -93.1%. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 0.1000 (bear case) to kr 0.1900 (bull case); at kr 1.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at -87%, NICO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nicoccino Holding AB (publ) manufactures and sells nicotine products in Sweden. It offers nicotine strips and pouches. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Vallentuna, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nicoccino Holding reported revenue of kr 889K in FY2025 versus kr 56.0K in FY2021, a compound +99.6%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 10.2M in FY2025.
NICO screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $188.93 | $103.71 | -45% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 695.00 IDR | 1,193 IDR | +72% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,375 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +4% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
Compare Nicoccino Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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