Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk IDR 203, price IDR 210, upside -3.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 170.00 IDR – 1,364 IDR · fair‑value band 184.97 IDR – 218.82 IDR · the 210.00 IDR price screens above the 203.43 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk operates as a tinplate manufacturer in Indonesia. It operates in two segments, Coil and Sheet. The company offers tinplate products in the form of coils and sheets. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) currently trades at 210.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 203.43 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 3.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 406.86 IDR per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the 210.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 203.43 IDR, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 184.97 IDR (bear) to 218.82 IDR (bull), the price of 210.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk reported revenue of $138M in FY2025 versus $211M in FY2021, a compound −10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $961K in FY2025, compounding −36.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 530B IDR (≈ $29.6M) · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) 11.52 IDR · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −3%, NIKL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 184.97 IDRFair Value 203.43 IDRBull 218.82 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (8.46 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.9% a year for the price.
Compare Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
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Is Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 203.43 IDR versus a price of 210.00 IDR, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NIKL?
Our model-based fair value for Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 203.43 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 210.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NIKL?
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 203.43 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 184.97 IDR, optimistic scenario 218.82 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 203.43 IDR, about −3% upside versus a price of 210.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 184.97 IDR, optimistic scenario 218.82 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $138M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NIKL use?
Our models discount Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk that is +15.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (+15.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.10 %: that much free cash flow Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk it is 203.43 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 210.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NIKL trades above its calculated fair value: price 210.00 IDR, fair value 203.43 IDR, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIKL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (210.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (203.43 IDR). For Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk the two are 6.57 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk worth?
The market values Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk at about 530B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 210.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 203.43 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NIKL?
Our models span a range for Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk: cautious scenario 184.97 IDR, base 203.43 IDR, optimistic 218.82 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 210.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NIKL?
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 203.43 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIKL from its 52-week high?
Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk trades at 210.00 IDR, about 55% below its 52-week high of 470.00 IDR and 24% above the low of 170.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 203.43 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 210.00 IDR, calculated fair value 203.43 IDR (−3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIKL calculated?
We run Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 203.43 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 210.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 203.43 IDR, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The market capitalisation of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 530B IDR (≈ $29.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Earnings per share at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk are 11.52 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The net margin of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
The operating margin of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Revenue at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL)?
Earnings per share at Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk are growing −25.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) carry?
The net debt of Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk is $47.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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