Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB SEK 7.99, price SEK 4.74, upside +68.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.90 – kr 14.60 · fair‑value band kr 5.59 – kr 10.38 · the kr 4.74 price screens below the kr 7.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nilsson Special Vehicles AB (publ) produces and sells ambulances, limousines, hearses, and other vehicles. The company offers used cars; and ceremonial and transport vehicles for hire. It operates in Europe and Scandinavia. Nilsson Special Vehicles AB (publ) was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Laholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) currently trades at kr 4.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 7.99, implying the stock looks roughly 40.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 10.65 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 4.74 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.9900, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 5.59 (bear) to kr 10.38 (bull), the price of kr 4.74 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB reported revenue of 172M SEK in FY2025 versus 186M SEK in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 22.2M SEK (≈ $2.2M) · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.4200 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 34.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 69%, NILS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 5.59Fair Value kr 7.99Bull kr 10.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.3084 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.0% a year for the price.
Compare Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+69% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−35% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NILS
Frequently asked questions
Is Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 7.99 versus a price of kr 4.74, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NILS?
Our model-based fair value for Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is kr 7.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 4.74.
What is the quality score of NILS?
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 7.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.59, optimistic scenario kr 10.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 7.99, about +69% upside versus a price of kr 4.74 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 5.59, optimistic scenario kr 10.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 156M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB would have to grow free cash flow by -19.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NILS use?
Our models discount Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB that is -19.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies -19.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (-19.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.13 %: that much free cash flow Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB it is kr 7.99 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of kr 4.74. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NILS trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 4.74, fair value kr 7.99, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NILS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 4.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 7.99). For Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB the two are kr 3.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB worth?
The market values Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB at about 22.2M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is kr 4.74; our models calculate a fair value of kr 7.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NILS?
Our models span a range for Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB: cautious scenario kr 5.59, base kr 7.99, optimistic kr 10.38 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price kr 4.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NILS?
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 7.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 34.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NILS from its 52-week high?
Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB trades at kr 4.74, about 16% below its 52-week high of kr 5.65 and 106% above the low of kr 2.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 7.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price kr 4.74, calculated fair value kr 7.99 (+69%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NILS calculated?
We run Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 7.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 4.74. Our model-based fair value is kr 7.99, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 5.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 5.59 to kr 10.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The market capitalisation of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 22.2M SEK (≈ $2.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Earnings per share at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB are kr 0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The net margin of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
The operating margin of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Revenue at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is growing −34.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS)?
Earnings per share at Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB are growing −63.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB (NILS) carry?
The net debt of Nilsson Special Vehicles publ AB is 2.7M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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