New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $5.9B
New Jersey Resources Corporation
NJR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −4.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($53.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.16 – $60.05 · fair‑value band $31.99 – $53.32 · the $55.02 price screens above the $42.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR) currently trades at $55.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.66, implying the stock looks roughly 22.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, New Jersey Resources Corporation generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at $3.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.99 (bear case) to $53.32 (bull case); at $55.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -22%, NJR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($52.05) versus Economic Profit ($3.23). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services holding company, distributes natural gas. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services, and Storage and Transportation.
Full company description
New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services holding company, distributes natural gas. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services, and Storage and Transportation. The Natural Gas Distribution segment offers regulated natural gas utility services to residential and commercial customers in Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, and Sussex counties in New Jersey; provides capacity and storage management services; and participates in the off-system sales and capacity release markets. The Clean Energy Ventures segment invests in, owns, and operates clean energy projects, including commercial and residential solar installation situated in New Jersey, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. The Energy Services segment maintains and transacts natural gas transportation and storage capacity contracts, as well as provides physical wholesale energy, retail energy and energy management services. The Storage and Transportation segment invests in energy-related ventures. It provides home services and other operations, such as heating, ventilation, and cooling services; sales and installation of appliances; electrical and generator service and installations; and plumbing repair and installation services, as well as holds commercial real estate properties. The company also offers shared administrative and financial services; and natural gas storage and transmission assets services. New Jersey Resources Corporation was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Jersey Resources Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $336M in FY2025, compounding +29.9%/yr from FY2021.
NJR screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- New Jersey Resources (NJR) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
- New Jersey Resources Swings To Q3 Profit
- New Jersey Resources Reports Fiscal 2026 Third-Quarter Results
- New Jersey Resources Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.30 | ¥25.71 | +49% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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