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NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NewJersey Resources Corporation $37.04, price $52.22, upside -29.1%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · ISIN US6460251068

Broad data Sep 23, 2026

NewJersey Resources Corporation

NJR · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $37.04 · Overvalued (−29%)

!Quality 42/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 15.7% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

·3.59% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)

✓Wide moat 65/100

!Insider activity 40/100

!Weak on future: 15 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $23.46 to bull $61.86 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 42/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.16 – $60.05 · fair‑value band $23.46 – $61.86 · the $52.22 price screens above the $37.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services holding company, distributes natural gas. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services, and Storage and Transportation. The Natural Gas Distribution segment offers regulated natural gas utility services to residential and commercial customers in Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, and Sussex counties in New Jersey; provides capacity and storage management services; and participates in the off-system sales and capacity release markets. The Clean Energy Ventures segment invests in, owns, and operates clean energy projects, including commercial and residential solar installation situated in New Jersey, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. The Energy Services segment maintains and transacts natural gas transportation and storage capacity contracts, as well as provides physical wholesale energy, retail energy and energy management services. The Storage and Transportation segment invests in energy-related ventures. It provides home services and other operations, such as heating, ventilation, and cooling services; sales and installation of appliances; electrical and generator service and installations; and plumbing repair and installation services, as well as holds commercial real estate properties. The company also offers shared administrative and financial services; and natural gas storage and transmission assets services. New Jersey Resources Corporation was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) currently trades at $52.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.04, implying the stock looks roughly 41.0% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $52.05 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $52.22 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.88, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.46 (bear) to $61.86 (bull), the price of $52.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

NewJersey Resources Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $336M in FY2025, compounding +29.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.9B · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 2.56 · EPS (TTM) $3.37 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 16.5% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −29%, NJR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.46 Fair Value $37.04 Bull $61.86

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.47 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $22.80 $27.76 $54.85 72

EPV n/a $3.23 $7.38 68

ROIC Compounder n/a $3.23 $7.38 68

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $22.61 $63.60 $83.69 65

Lynch FV $12.87 $18.39 $23.91 61

PEG = 1.0 $12.87 $18.39 $23.91 57

EPV n/a $3.23 $7.38 68

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $15.67 $31.22 $47.28 67

DDM Multi-Stage $15.67 $24.40 $32.96 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $44.90 $59.86 $74.83 63

P/S Multiple $37.78 $50.37 $62.96 58

P/B Multiple $31.99 $42.66 $53.32 55

EV/EBIT $16.46 $32.66 $48.85 63

EV/EBITDA $14.30 $29.77 $45.24 64

EV/Revenue $3.15 $18.26 $33.37 48

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $11.85 $15.88 $23.70 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $22.80 $27.76 $54.85 72

ROIC Compounder n/a $3.23 $7.38 68

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $36.44 $52.05 $67.67 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 37

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 47

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 35

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 20

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 40

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 96

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 43

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 52

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 67

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

+13.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−11.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+0.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.8% a year

Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+17.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 7%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 21%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

NJR screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive

Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

New Jersey Resources (NJR) Stock May Still Be A Bargain Following Dividend News Yahoo Finance · Sep 17, 2026
New Jersey Resources (NJR) Turns Last Year’s Loss Into A Guidance Raise Yahoo Finance · Sep 4, 2026
NewJersey Resources Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Yahoo Finance · Aug 5, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −29% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 3% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.36× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.5× · Cheaper than median

P/B 2.47× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 2.71× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 12.9× · Priciest 25%

PEG 2.26× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36

FUTURE (revenue growth)15 · sector 0

PAST (return on equity)53 · sector 35

HEALTH (low debt)32 · sector 83

DIVIDEND (yield)72 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY	€29.48	€32.79	+11%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO	$157.34	$77.92	−50%
NiSource Inc NI	$39.88	$19.90	−50%
Uniper SE UN0	€48.45	€45.97	−5%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003	HK$7.12	HK$4.79	−33%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL	₹172.95	₹132.19	−24%
Italgas S.p.A IG	€8.43	€9.27	+10%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803	¥18.58	¥61.20	+229%
UGI Corporation UGI	$36.85	$32.82	−11%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX	$83.49	$57.83	−31%

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NewJersey Resources Corporation · Fair Value
$37.04 −41%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NJR" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">NewJersey Resources Corporation · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$37.04</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−41%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NewJersey Resources Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NJR

Frequently asked questions

Is NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.04 versus a price of $52.22, about −29% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of NJR?

Our model-based fair value for NewJersey Resources Corporation is $37.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.22.

What is the quality score of NJR?

NewJersey Resources Corporation has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.46, optimistic scenario $61.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the NewJersey Resources Corporation stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $37.04, about −29% upside versus a price of $52.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.46, optimistic scenario $61.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

NewJersey Resources Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does NewJersey Resources Corporation pay a dividend?

NewJersey Resources Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NewJersey Resources Corporation it is $37.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $52.22. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is NewJersey Resources Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, NJR trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.22, fair value $37.04, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of NJR?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.04). For NewJersey Resources Corporation the two are $15.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is NewJersey Resources Corporation worth?

The market values NewJersey Resources Corporation at about $5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $52.22; our models calculate a fair value of $37.04 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NJR?

Our models span a range for NewJersey Resources Corporation: cautious scenario $23.46, base $37.04, optimistic $61.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $52.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of NJR?

NewJersey Resources Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 2.5, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 12.9.

What is the PEG ratio of NJR?

The PEG ratio of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 2.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Balance-sheet figures for NewJersey Resources Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is NJR from its 52-week high?

NewJersey Resources Corporation trades at $52.22, about 13% below its 52-week high of $60.05 and 22% above the low of $42.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.04 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to NewJersey Resources Corporation?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is NewJersey Resources Corporation stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $52.22, calculated fair value $37.04 (−29%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of NJR calculated?

We run NewJersey Resources Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NewJersey Resources Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $52.22. Our model-based fair value is $37.04, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with NewJersey Resources Corporation right now?

Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($23.46 to $61.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Where does the earnings growth of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) come from?

Earnings per share at NewJersey Resources Corporation grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.6 %, EBIT margin +9.8 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of NewJersey Resources Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The market capitalisation of NewJersey Resources Corporation is $5.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The price-to-sales ratio of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 2.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Earnings per share at NewJersey Resources Corporation are $3.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The dividend yield of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 3.6% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The net margin of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 16.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The return on equity (ROE) of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

The operating margin of NewJersey Resources Corporation is 32.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Revenue at NewJersey Resources Corporation is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)?

Earnings per share at NewJersey Resources Corporation are growing +6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) generate?

The free cash flow of NewJersey Resources Corporation is −$240M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR) carry?

The net debt of NewJersey Resources Corporation is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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