As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of NOCIL ₹81.01, price ₹165, upside -50.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹127.04 – ₹323.91 · fair‑value band ₹59.81 – ₹97.14 · the ₹164.84 price screens above the ₹81.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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NOCIL (NOCIL) currently trades at ₹164.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹81.01, 50.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹71.14 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹164.84 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹14.32, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹59.81 (bear) to ₹97.14 (bull), the price of ₹164.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
NOCIL reported revenue of ₹13.0B in FY2026 versus ₹15.6B in FY2022, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹556M in FY2026, compounding −25.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹27.6B (≈ $285M) · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) ₹3.95 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −51%, NOCIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹59.81Fair Value ₹81.01Bull ₹97.14
Price ₹164.84 · Upside -50.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF₹45.96₹62.15₹82.0479
Growth DCF₹46.11₹60.21₹76.5378
EPV₹13.01₹14.32₹15.3874
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF₹45.96₹62.15₹82.0479
5Y Revenue Exit₹34.56₹47.82₹63.9671
5Y EBITDA Exit₹43.64₹64.57₹88.3473
5Y P/E Exit₹42.27₹62.04₹82.2569
10Y Revenue Exit₹38.67₹50.72₹65.6466
10Y EBITDA Exit₹44.15₹60.59₹81.3567
10Y P/E Exit₹43.41₹59.10₹77.4363
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd₹22.65₹66.70₹88.2063
Lynch FV₹13.97₹19.95₹25.9459
PEG = 1.0₹13.97₹19.95₹25.9455
EPV₹13.01₹14.32₹15.3874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM₹14.12₹23.66₹30.7166
DDM Multi-Stage₹14.12₹20.75₹25.4565
Multiples
P/E Multiple₹42.47₹56.62₹70.7863
P/S Multiple₹42.47₹56.62₹70.7858
P/B Multiple₹42.47₹56.62₹70.7855
EV/EBIT₹30.95₹40.58₹50.2066
EV/EBITDA₹47.34₹62.42₹77.5067
EV/Revenue₹27.11₹37.83₹48.5554
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)₹53.09₹71.14₹106.1854
Growth DCF
Growth DCF₹46.11₹60.21₹76.5378
Rev-Margin DCF₹34.56₹48.50₹64.5271
Economic Profit
Residual Income₹69.91₹66.44₹65.5674
ROIC Compounder₹13.01₹14.32₹15.3870
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E₹35.26₹50.37₹65.4865
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.9% vs −3.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.4% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NOCIL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOCIL
Frequently asked questions
Is NOCIL overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹81.01 versus a price of ₹164.84, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOCIL?
Our model-based fair value for NOCIL is ₹81.01 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹164.84.
What is the quality score of NOCIL?
NOCIL has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOCIL?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹81.01 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹59.81, optimistic scenario ₹97.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOCIL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹81.01, about −51% upside versus a price of ₹164.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹59.81, optimistic scenario ₹97.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOCIL?
NOCIL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹13.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
Does NOCIL pay a dividend?
NOCIL currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into NOCIL?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NOCIL would have to grow free cash flow by +25.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOCIL use?
Our models discount NOCIL at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NOCIL that is +25.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NOCIL delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NOCIL grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +25.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NOCIL growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NOCIL (+25.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NOCIL?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.21 %: that much free cash flow NOCIL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NOCIL?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOCIL it is ₹81.01 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of ₹164.84. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NOCIL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, NOCIL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹164.84, fair value ₹81.01, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOCIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹164.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹81.01). For NOCIL the two are ₹83.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOCIL worth?
The market values NOCIL at about ₹27.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is ₹164.84; our models calculate a fair value of ₹81.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOCIL?
Our models span a range for NOCIL: cautious scenario ₹59.81, base ₹81.01, optimistic ₹97.14 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price ₹164.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NOCIL from its 52-week high?
NOCIL trades at ₹164.84, about 20% below its 52-week high of ₹206.30 and 30% above the low of ₹127.04 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹81.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NOCIL?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOCIL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price ₹164.84, calculated fair value ₹81.01 (−51%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOCIL calculated?
We run NOCIL through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹81.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NOCIL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NOCIL?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was ₹164.84. Our model-based fair value is ₹81.01, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NOCIL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹97.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of NOCIL come from?
Earnings per share at NOCIL grew +1.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NOCIL
How large is the market capitalisation of NOCIL?
The market capitalisation of NOCIL is ₹27.6B (≈ $285M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of NOCIL?
The price-to-earnings ratio of NOCIL is 41.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of NOCIL?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOCIL is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOCIL?
Earnings per share at NOCIL are ₹3.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NOCIL?
The dividend yield of NOCIL is 0.9% (payout 38.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NOCIL?
The net margin of NOCIL is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NOCIL?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOCIL is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOCIL?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOCIL is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOCIL?
The operating margin of NOCIL is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOCIL?
Revenue at NOCIL is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NOCIL?
Earnings per share at NOCIL are growing +61.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NOCIL hold?
NOCIL holds more cash than debt, ₹268M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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