PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk (NPGF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 185B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 16.36 IDR to 29.92 IDR (+82.9%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (38.90 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (17.08 IDR to 38.90 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.85 IDR – 180.20 IDR · fair‑value band 17.08 IDR – 38.90 IDR · the 58.00 IDR price screens above the 29.92 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk (NPGF) currently trades at 58.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.92 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 48.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk generated revenue of 199B IDR at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 23.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.5%. Net debt stands at 106B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 17.08 IDR (bear case) to 38.90 IDR (bull case); at 58.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -48%, NPGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (49.42 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (4.45 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of primary macro nutrient compound fertilizers in Indonesia. It produces and sells NPK granule fertilizer and micro fertilizer. The company also offers micro fertilizer nutrimix GT, CCF fertilizer ferticote, SinutriHS, and NPK fertilizer ferticomp.
Full company description
PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of primary macro nutrient compound fertilizers in Indonesia. It produces and sells NPK granule fertilizer and micro fertilizer. The company also offers micro fertilizer nutrimix GT, CCF fertilizer ferticote, SinutriHS, and NPK fertilizer ferticomp. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Gresik, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk reported revenue of 226B IDR in FY2025 versus 352B IDR in FY2021, a compound −10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
NPGF screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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