Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk IDR 30, price IDR 54, upside -44.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of primary macro nutrient compound fertilizers in Indonesia. It produces and sells NPK granule fertilizer and micro fertilizer. The company also offers micro fertilizer nutrimix GT, CCF fertilizer ferticote, SinutriHS, and NPK fertilizer ferticomp.
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PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of primary macro nutrient compound fertilizers in Indonesia. It produces and sells NPK granule fertilizer and micro fertilizer. The company also offers micro fertilizer nutrimix GT, CCF fertilizer ferticote, SinutriHS, and NPK fertilizer ferticomp. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Gresik, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) currently trades at 54.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.92 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 80.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 49.42 IDR per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the 54.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 4.18 IDR, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 20.95 IDR (bear) to 33.02 IDR (bull), the price of 54.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk reported revenue of 226B IDR in FY2025 versus 352B IDR in FY2021, a compound −10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 175B IDR (≈ $9.8M) · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) 0.0200 IDR · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, NPGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.95 IDRFair Value 29.92 IDRBull 33.02 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
’17
’18
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’20
’21
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Compare Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 180 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−45% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth128% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 29.92 IDR versus a price of 54.00 IDR, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPGF?
Our model-based fair value for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 29.92 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NPGF?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 29.92 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.95 IDR, optimistic scenario 33.02 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 29.92 IDR, about −45% upside versus a price of 54.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 20.95 IDR, optimistic scenario 33.02 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 310B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk pay a dividend?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk it is 29.92 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 54.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NPGF trades above its calculated fair value: price 54.00 IDR, fair value 29.92 IDR, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (29.92 IDR). For Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk the two are 24.08 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk worth?
The market values Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk at about 175B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 54.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 29.92 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPGF?
Our models span a range for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk: cautious scenario 20.95 IDR, base 29.92 IDR, optimistic 33.02 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 54.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPGF from its 52-week high?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk trades at 54.00 IDR, about 30% below its 52-week high of 77.60 IDR and 2% above the low of 53.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 29.92 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 54.00 IDR, calculated fair value 29.92 IDR (−45%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPGF calculated?
We run Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 29.92 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 54.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 29.92 IDR, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (33.02 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The market capitalisation of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 175B IDR (≈ $9.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Earnings per share at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk are 0.0200 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The dividend yield of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The net margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The operating margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Revenue at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is growing +128% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Earnings per share at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk are growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is −39.1B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) carry?
The net debt of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 106B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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