Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock IDR 45, price IDR 43, upside +5.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.78 IDR – 176.32 IDR · fair‑value band 40.37 IDR – 49.18 IDR · the 43.00 IDR price screens below the 45.42 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of primary macro nutrient compound fertilizers in Indonesia. It produces and sells NPK granule fertilizer and micro fertilizer.
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The company also offers micro fertilizer nutrimix GT, CCF fertilizer ferticote, SinutriHS, and NPK fertilizer ferticomp. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Gresik, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) currently trades at 43.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 45.42 IDR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 57.67 IDR per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the 43.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 22.77 IDR, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 40.37 IDR (bear) to 49.18 IDR (bull), the price of 43.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk reported revenue of 226B IDR in FY2025 versus 352B IDR in FY2021, a compound −10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 139B IDR (≈ $7.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) 0.0300 IDR · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 6%, NPGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear40.37 IDRFair Value 45.42 IDRBull49.18 IDR
Price 43.00 IDR · Upside +5.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Compare Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+5.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)128.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 45.42 IDR versus a price of 43.00 IDR, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NPGF?
Our model-based fair value for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 45.42 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 43.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NPGF?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 45.42 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 40.37 IDR, optimistic scenario 49.18 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 45.42 IDR, about +6% upside versus a price of 43.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 40.37 IDR, optimistic scenario 49.18 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 310B IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk pay a dividend?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk pays a dividend of 0.276 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 10, 2026. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk it is 45.42 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 43.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NPGF trades below its calculated fair value: price 43.00 IDR, fair value 45.42 IDR, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (43.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (45.42 IDR). For Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk the two are 2.42 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk worth?
The market values Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk at about 139B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 43.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 45.42 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPGF?
Our models span a range for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk: cautious scenario 40.37 IDR, base 45.42 IDR, optimistic 49.18 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 43.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 2.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPGF from its 52-week high?
Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk trades at 43.00 IDR, about 45% below its 52-week high of 77.60 IDR and 23% above the low of 35.00 IDR (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 45.42 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 43.00 IDR, calculated fair value 45.42 IDR (+6%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPGF calculated?
We run Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 45.42 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 43.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 45.42 IDR, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The market capitalisation of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 139B IDR (≈ $7.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Earnings per share at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk are 0.0300 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The dividend yield of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The net margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 1.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
The operating margin of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Revenue at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF)?
Earnings per share at Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk are growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is −39.1B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk (NPGF) carry?
The net debt of Nusa Palapa Gemilang PT Tbk is 106B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026