Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Steel Corp stock $1.21, price $4.29, upside -71.9%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.76 – $4.59 · fair‑value band $0.4760 – $2.74 · the $4.29 price screens above the $1.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products.
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Its Engineering and Construction segment engages in the design, manufacture, sale, construction, and supervision of various plants and facilities, energy pipelines, water facilities, industrial machinery and equipment, buildings, building materials and equipment, steel structures, etc.; operation, management, and maintenance of plants and facilities, etc.; waste treatment and recycling business; and electricity, gas, heat, and other supply businesses.
The company's Chemicals and Materials segment engages in the manufacture and sale of coal-based chemical products, petrochemicals, electronic materials, and materials and components for semiconductors and electronic parts; carbon fiber and composite products; and products that utilize technologies for metal processing.
Its System Solutions segment offers computer system engineering and consulting; and IT-enabled outsourcing services and other services.
The company also provides steel plates, sheets, and slags; structural steels; pipes and tubes; railway, automotive, and machinery parts; titanium; and stainless steel and electrical steel sheet products for use in various applications, including automotive, construction, energy, railways and shipping, and consumer electronics industries.
The company was formerly known as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Steel Corporation in April 2019. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) currently trades at $4.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.21, 71.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.21 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $4.29 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1600, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4760 (bear) to $2.74 (bull), the price of $4.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nippon Steel Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥10.7T in FY2026 versus ¥6.8T in FY2022, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.2B in FY2026, compounding −58.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $22.4B Large · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −72%, NPSCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1600 to $16.31). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$0.4760Fair Value $1.21Bull$2.74
Price $4.29 · Upside -71.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1168 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$4.65$4.34$4.1576
EPV$1.00$1.31$1.5773
ROIC Compounder$1.00$1.31$1.5771
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$0.1500$0.5100$0.680064
Lynch FV$0.1200$0.1600$0.210061
PEG = 1.0$0.1200$0.1600$0.210057
EPV$1.00$1.31$1.5773
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$0.7300$1.62$2.7765
DDM Multi-Stage$0.7300$1.28$1.6866
Multiples
P/E Multiple$0.2800$0.3800$0.470063
P/S Multiple$0.2800$0.3800$0.470057
P/B Multiple$12.23$16.31$20.3855
EV/EBIT$0.1400$0.9500$1.7657
EV/EBITDA$1.65$2.97$4.2964
EV/Revenuen/a$0.7200$1.6249
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.46$2.21$2.7754
Economic Profit
Residual Income$4.65$4.34$4.1576
ROIC Compounder$1.00$1.31$1.5771
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$0.2500$0.3500$0.460067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−48.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−52.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−52.2% vs −19.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Commoditized steel operations with thin margins, weak returns and negative free cash flow form the main weakness, while efforts to target advanced automotive products provide the only limited strength.
Main risk: Shrinking domestic demand threatens to leave the major hot rolling line investment underutilized and further strain negative free cash flow plus high leverage.
Nippon Steel is spending nearly two billion dollars on a new hot rolling line in Japan, its largest single-asset investment ever, to win automotive market share from rivals. Domestic demand continues to shrink, yet the company sees room to expand its position with advanced products. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the automotive push deliver enough to justify the spending amid weak overall demand, or will it stretch resources further?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 403 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.63× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.32× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.4× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.75× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.21 versus a price of $4.29, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPSCY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Steel Corp ADR is $1.21 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.29.
What is the quality score of NPSCY?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.21 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4760, optimistic scenario $2.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.21, about −72% upside versus a price of $4.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4760, optimistic scenario $2.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥10.9T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Nippon Steel Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.57% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Steel Corp ADR it is $1.21 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $4.29. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NPSCY trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.29, fair value $1.21, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPSCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.21). For Nippon Steel Corp ADR the two are $3.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Steel Corp ADR worth?
The market values Nippon Steel Corp ADR at about $22.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $4.29; our models calculate a fair value of $1.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPSCY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Steel Corp ADR: cautious scenario $0.4760, base $1.21, optimistic $2.74 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $4.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPSCY?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NPSCY?
The PEG ratio of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 2.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Steel Corp ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPSCY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR trades at $4.29, about 7% below its 52-week high of $4.59 and 28% above the low of $3.34 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Steel Corp ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $4.29, calculated fair value $1.21 (−72%), Quality Score 32/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPSCY calculated?
We run Nippon Steel Corp ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Steel Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $4.29. Our model-based fair value is $1.21, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Steel Corp ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.4760 to $2.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corp ADR grew +6.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nippon Steel Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is $22.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 0.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corp ADR are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 3.6% (payout 42.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The net margin of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 0.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
The operating margin of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Revenue at Nippon Steel Corp ADR is growing +40.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Steel Corp ADR are growing −42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) generate?
The free cash flow of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is −¥183B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nippon Steel Corp (NPSCY) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is ¥4.7T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026