Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Nippon Steel Corp ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Basic Materials · US · Market cap $18.6B · ISIN US65461T1016
At a glance
NSNippon Steel Corp ADRNPSCY · US
Price$4.48
Fair Value$7.07
Upside+57.9%
Quality42/100
Below-average quality, trading 37% below our fair value of $7.07.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is $7.07 per share against a price of $4.48, so the fair value sits 58% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·5.27% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 3 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $5.89 to $11.15
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $4.21 to $7.07 (+68.0%) since Aug 30, 2026. Share price +2.5% over the past month.
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What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range ($5.89 to $11.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.32 – $7.67 · fair‑value band $5.89 – $11.15 · the $4.48 price screens below the $7.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY) currently trades at $4.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.07, implying the stock looks roughly 36.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $59.18 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the $4.48 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $25.79, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nippon Steel Corp ADR generated revenue of $10.1T at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 31.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at $4.7T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $5.89 (bear) to $11.15 (bull), the price of $4.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 58%, NPSCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio224.0
P/S ratio0.38P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.0200price ÷ EPS = P/E 224.0
Dividend yield5.3%
Net margin0.2%FY2026
Return on equity0.8%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)6.5%avg 5y
Operating margin4.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$10.1TTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+31.0%3y avg +10.2%
EPS growth (YoY)−42.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$183BFY2026
Net debt$4.7TFY2026
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality42/100
Of which business quality 43
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Profitability24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance80
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products.
Full company description
Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products. Its Engineering and Construction segment engages in the design, manufacture, sale, construction, and supervision of various plants and facilities, energy pipelines, water facilities, industrial machinery and equipment, buildings, building materials and equipment, steel structures, etc.; operation, management, and maintenance of plants and facilities, etc.; waste treatment and recycling business; and electricity, gas, heat, and other supply businesses. The company's Chemicals and Materials segment engages in the manufacture and sale of coal-based chemical products, petrochemicals, electronic materials, and materials and components for semiconductors and electronic parts; carbon fiber and composite products; and products that utilize technologies for metal processing. Its System Solutions segment offers computer system engineering and consulting; and IT-enabled outsourcing services and other services. The company also provides steel plates, sheets, and slags; structural steels; pipes and tubes; railway, automotive, and machinery parts; titanium; and stainless steel and electrical steel sheet products for use in various applications, including automotive, construction, energy, railways and shipping, and consumer electronics industries. The company was formerly known as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Steel Corporation in April 2019. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Nippon Steel Corp ADR reported revenue of $10.7T in FY2026 versus $6.8T in FY2022, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $18.2B in FY2026, compounding −58.9%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$10.7T
Latest YoY
+22.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+42.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+37.4%
Dividend yield5.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −51.0% vs 10Y −18.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2.0% (2021) → 4.5% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop300% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue+11.9%/yr
FY22$6.8T
FY23$8.0T
FY24$8.9T
FY25$8.7T
FY26$10.7T
Net income−58.9%/yr
FY22$637B
FY23$694B
FY24$549B
FY25$350B
FY26$18.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026)+7.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share+7.0 %
of which total revenue +7.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
EBIT margin+4.9 %
Tax rate+0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−4.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 12
FUTURE100· sector 2
PAST3· sector 16
HEALTH83· sector 95
DIVIDEND100· sector 49
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.07 versus a price of $4.48, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NPSCY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Steel Corp ADR is $7.07 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.48.
What is the quality score of NPSCY?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.07 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.89, optimistic scenario $11.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.07, about +58% upside versus a price of $4.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.89, optimistic scenario $11.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY)?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NPSCY?
The net profit margin of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is about 0.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nippon Steel Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Steel Corp ADR it is $7.07 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $4.48. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, NPSCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.48, fair value $7.07, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPSCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.07). For Nippon Steel Corp ADR the two are $2.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Steel Corp ADR worth?
The market values Nippon Steel Corp ADR at about $18.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.48; our models calculate a fair value of $7.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPSCY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Steel Corp ADR: cautious scenario $5.89, base $7.07, optimistic $11.15 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $4.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPSCY?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 224.0 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NPSCY?
The PEG ratio of Nippon Steel Corp ADR is 2.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Steel Corp ADR (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPSCY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR trades at $4.48, about 42% below its 52-week high of $7.69 and 33% above the low of $3.38 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Steel Corp ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, JSW Steel Limited, Steel Dynamics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Steel Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $4.48, calculated fair value $7.07 (+58%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPSCY calculated?
We run Nippon Steel Corp ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Steel Corp ADR currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Nippon Steel Corp ADR
NPSCY · US