Ternium S.A (TX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $8.9B
Ternium S.A
TX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $41.24 to $45.02 (+9.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +25.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $33.77 (bear) to $56.28 (bull), base $45.02. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.75 – $53.90 · fair‑value band $33.77 – $56.28 · the $53.90 price screens above the $45.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Ternium S.A (TX) currently trades at $53.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.02, implying the stock looks roughly 16.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ternium S.A generated revenue of $15.6B at a net margin of 3.7%. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 15.1. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $33.77 (bear case) to $56.28 (bull case); at $53.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -16%, TX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($40.77) versus Earnings-Based ($13.04). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining.
Full company description
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ternium S.A reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $425M in FY2025, compounding −42.3%/yr from FY2021.
TX screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ternium SA (TX) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Adjusted EBITDA Surges 50% Sequentially, ...
- Compared to Estimates, Ternium (TX) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
- Ternium Announces Second Quarter and First Half of 2026 Results
- Is Ternium (NYSE:TX) Still Reasonable Or Is The Upside Priced In?
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| NMDC Limited NMDC | ₹84.08 | ₹116.23 | +38% |
Compare Ternium S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium S.A (TX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TX?
What is the quality score of TX?
What is the revenue of Ternium S.A (TX)?
What is the net profit margin of TX?
Does Ternium S.A pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Ternium S.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.