Ternium SA (TX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ternium SA stock $45.02, price $49.16, that is 8.4% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.75 – $59.69 · fair‑value band $28.06 – $55.71 · the $49.16 price screens above the $45.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining.
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The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets.
It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.
Stock analysis
Ternium SA (TX) currently trades at $49.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.02, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.82 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $49.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.16, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.06 (bear) to $55.71 (bull), the price of $49.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ternium SA ADR reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $425M in FY2025, compounding −42.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.7B Mid · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $5.00 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −8%, TX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.06Fair Value $45.02Bull$55.71
Price $49.16 · Downside -8.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$44.73$44.42$45.5676
EPV$11.96$14.06$15.8773
ROIC Compounder$11.96$14.06$15.8771
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$14.73$43.50$57.5565
Lynch FV$9.13$13.04$16.9561
PEG = 1.0$9.13$13.04$16.9557
EPV$11.96$14.06$15.8773
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$18.63$37.51$57.4466
DDM Multi-Stage$18.63$29.73$39.5566
Multiples
P/E Multiple$27.62$36.82$46.0363
P/S Multiple$27.62$36.82$46.0357
P/B Multiple$125.41$167.22$209.0255
EV/EBIT$25.06$34.83$44.6064
EV/EBITDA$40.08$54.86$69.6467
EV/Revenue$21.15$32.04$42.9352
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.06$6.16$7.7054
Economic Profit
Residual Income$44.73$44.42$45.5676
ROIC Compounder$11.96$14.06$15.8771
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$22.95$32.79$42.6367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.4% vs −0.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 5%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Ternium gains from Mexico share capture and upcoming vertical integration at Pesquería as main strength, yet stays limited by thin margins, low returns and negative free cash flow of its commoditized steel model.
Main risk: Subsidized Chinese steel overcapacity could flood Latin American markets and force Ternium to lower prices or lose customers.
Bull case: By expanding low-carbon capacity in Mexico compliant with USMCA rules, Ternium could capture nearshoring demand and premium pricing for sustainable steel.
Bear case: Persistent Chinese imports combined with US tariffs might erode Ternium's market share in key regions and limit growth from new mills.
Ternium posted record Mexico shipments in Q3 as it captured share from imports, alongside strong operating cash flow that swung the balance sheet to a net cash position. The Pesquería slab mill is on track to begin production in February, adding vertical integration and cost advantages. Will the Mexico momentum and lower cost base carry through the investment cycle, or will steel's fixed-cost nature and regional cycles cap the benefits?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−8.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ternium SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TX
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium SA (TX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.02 versus a price of $49.16, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TX?
Our model-based fair value for Ternium SA is $45.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.16.
What is the quality score of TX?
Ternium SA has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ternium SA (TX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.06, optimistic scenario $55.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ternium SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.02, about 8% lower versus a price of $49.16 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $28.06, optimistic scenario $55.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ternium SA (TX)?
Ternium SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Ternium SA ADR pay a dividend?
Ternium SA currently shows a dividend yield of 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ternium SA (TX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ternium SA pays a dividend of $1.30 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2010. The payout ratio is 27.4% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 26.0%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Ternium SA (TX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ternium SA it is $45.02 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $49.16. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ternium SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TX trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.16, fair value $45.02, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.02). For Ternium SA the two are $4.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ternium SA ADR worth?
The market values Ternium SA at about $9.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $49.16; our models calculate a fair value of $45.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TX?
Our models span a range for Ternium SA: cautious scenario $28.06, base $45.02, optimistic $55.71 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $49.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TX?
Ternium SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.02 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.9 (reported for FY2025: 22.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 6.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TX?
The PEG ratio of Ternium SA is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ternium SA (TX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ternium SA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TX from its 52-week high?
Ternium SA trades at $49.16, about 18% below its 52-week high of $59.69 and 46% above the low of $33.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ternium SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ternium SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $49.16, calculated fair value $45.02 (−8%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TX calculated?
We run Ternium SA through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $45.02 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ternium SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ternium SA (TX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $49.16. Our model-based fair value is $45.02, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ternium SA ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($28.06 to $55.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ternium SA (TX) come from?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ternium SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ternium SA (TX)?
The market capitalisation of Ternium SA is $9.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ternium SA (TX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ternium SA is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ternium SA (TX)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA are $5.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ternium SA (TX)?
The dividend yield of Ternium SA is 2.6% (payout 27.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ternium SA (TX)?
The net margin of Ternium SA is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ternium SA (TX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ternium SA is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ternium SA (TX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ternium SA is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ternium SA (TX)?
The operating margin of Ternium SA is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ternium SA (TX)?
Revenue at Ternium SA is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ternium SA (TX)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ternium SA (TX) generate?
The free cash flow of Ternium SA is −$187M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ternium SA (TX) carry?
The net debt of Ternium SA is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026