Ternium SA (TX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ternium SA $45.02, price $55.99, upside -19.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Ternium SA ADR for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.75 – $58.11 · fair‑value band $33.77 – $56.29 · the $55.99 price screens above the $45.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Ternium SA ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Ternium SA ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining.
Show more
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.
Stock analysis
Ternium SA ADR (TX) currently trades at $55.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.02, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $40.77 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $55.99 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $13.04, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $33.77 (bear) to $56.29 (bull), the price of $55.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ternium SA ADR reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $425M in FY2025, compounding −42.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $3.00 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −20%, TX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $33.77Fair Value $45.02Bull $56.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5852 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 5%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 415 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ternium SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TX
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium SA (TX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.02 versus a price of $55.99, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TX?
Our model-based fair value for Ternium SA ADR is $45.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.99.
What is the quality score of TX?
Ternium SA ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ternium SA (TX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.77, optimistic scenario $56.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ternium SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.02, about −20% upside versus a price of $55.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $33.77, optimistic scenario $56.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ternium SA (TX)?
Ternium SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ternium SA ADR pay a dividend?
Ternium SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ternium SA (TX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ternium SA ADR it is $45.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $55.99. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ternium SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TX trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.99, fair value $45.02, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.02). For Ternium SA ADR the two are $10.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ternium SA ADR worth?
The market values Ternium SA ADR at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $55.99; our models calculate a fair value of $45.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TX?
Our models span a range for Ternium SA ADR: cautious scenario $33.77, base $45.02, optimistic $56.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $55.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TX?
Ternium SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TX?
The PEG ratio of Ternium SA ADR is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ternium SA (TX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ternium SA ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.2%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TX from its 52-week high?
Ternium SA ADR trades at $55.99, about 4% below its 52-week high of $58.11 and 73% above the low of $32.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ternium SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ternium SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $55.99, calculated fair value $45.02 (−20%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TX calculated?
We run Ternium SA ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ternium SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ternium SA (TX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $55.99. Our model-based fair value is $45.02, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ternium SA ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Ternium SA (TX) come from?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA ADR grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ternium SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Ternium SA (TX)?
The market capitalisation of Ternium SA ADR is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ternium SA (TX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ternium SA ADR is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ternium SA (TX)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA ADR are $3.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ternium SA (TX)?
The dividend yield of Ternium SA ADR is 3.9% (payout 73.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ternium SA (TX)?
The net margin of Ternium SA ADR is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ternium SA (TX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ternium SA ADR is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ternium SA (TX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ternium SA ADR is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ternium SA (TX)?
The operating margin of Ternium SA ADR is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Ternium SA (TX)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA ADR are growing +218% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ternium SA (TX) generate?
The free cash flow of Ternium SA ADR is −$187M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ternium SA (TX) carry?
The net debt of Ternium SA ADR is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Ternium SA ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Ternium SA ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026