N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of N R Agarwal Industries Limited ₹500, price ₹660, upside -24.3%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹196.26 – ₹677.25 · fair‑value band ₹358.55 – ₹624.41 · the ₹659.50 price screens above the ₹499.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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N R Agarwal Industries Limited manufactures and sells finished paper products in India. The company offers folding box board and solid bleached sulphate products; duplex boards, such as coated paper board white and grey back for offset printing, embossing, and foil stamping; writing and printing papers; copier papers; and newsprint products.
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N R Agarwal Industries Limited manufactures and sells finished paper products in India. The company offers folding box board and solid bleached sulphate products; duplex boards, such as coated paper board white and grey back for offset printing, embossing, and foil stamping; writing and printing papers; copier papers; and newsprint products. Its products are primarily used in FMCG packaging, textbooks and notebooks, and print media sectors. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) currently trades at ₹659.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹499.52, 24.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹447.58 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹659.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹80.15, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹358.55 (bear) to ₹624.41 (bull), the price of ₹659.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
N R Agarwal Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹21.5B in FY2026 versus ₹16.0B in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹437M in FY2026, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹11.2B (≈ $117M) · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) ₹36.49 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −24%, NRAIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹358.55Fair Value ₹499.52Bull ₹624.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹17.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.5% vs 2.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 5%
Compare N R Agarwal Industries Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−24.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "N R Agarwal Industries Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NRAIL
Frequently asked questions
Is N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹499.52 versus a price of ₹659.50, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRAIL?
Our model-based fair value for N R Agarwal Industries Limited is ₹499.52 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹659.50.
What is the quality score of NRAIL?
N R Agarwal Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹499.52 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹358.55, optimistic scenario ₹624.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the N R Agarwal Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹499.52, about −24% upside versus a price of ₹659.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹358.55, optimistic scenario ₹624.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
N R Agarwal Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹23.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does N R Agarwal Industries Limited pay a dividend?
N R Agarwal Industries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.30% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For N R Agarwal Industries Limited it is ₹499.52 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹659.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is N R Agarwal Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, NRAIL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹659.50, fair value ₹499.52, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRAIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹659.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹499.52). For N R Agarwal Industries Limited the two are ₹159.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is N R Agarwal Industries Limited worth?
The market values N R Agarwal Industries Limited at about ₹11.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹659.50; our models calculate a fair value of ₹499.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRAIL?
Our models span a range for N R Agarwal Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹358.55, base ₹499.52, optimistic ₹624.41 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹659.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRAIL?
N R Agarwal Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹499.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for N R Agarwal Industries Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRAIL from its 52-week high?
N R Agarwal Industries Limited trades at ₹659.50, about 3% below its 52-week high of ₹677.25 and 70% above the low of ₹388.95 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹499.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to N R Agarwal Industries Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is N R Agarwal Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹659.50, calculated fair value ₹499.52 (−24%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRAIL calculated?
We run N R Agarwal Industries Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹499.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. N R Agarwal Industries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹659.50. Our model-based fair value is ₹499.52, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with N R Agarwal Industries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹624.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) come from?
Earnings per share at N R Agarwal Industries Limited grew +7.5 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +9.6 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of N R Agarwal Industries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The market capitalisation of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is ₹11.2B (≈ $117M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Earnings per share at N R Agarwal Industries Limited are ₹36.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The dividend yield of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 0.3% (payout 5.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The net margin of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 2.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
The operating margin of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Revenue at N R Agarwal Industries Limited is growing +43.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL)?
Earnings per share at N R Agarwal Industries Limited are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) generate?
The free cash flow of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is −₹2.6B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does N R Agarwal Industries Limited (NRAIL) carry?
The net debt of N R Agarwal Industries Limited is ₹8.2B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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