NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc (NREF) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $366M
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc
NREF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +15.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.04 – $18.17 · fair‑value band $10.67 – $17.77 · the $18.17 price screens above the $14.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc (NREF) currently trades at $18.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.22, implying the stock looks roughly 21.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc generated revenue of $156M at a net margin of 66.6%. Revenue declined 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $4.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.67 (bear case) to $17.77 (bull case); at $18.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -22%, NREF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($42.92) versus Multiples ($16.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It focuses on originating, structuring, and investing in first-lien mortgage loans, preferred equity, mezzanine loans, convertible notes, multifamily properties, and common equity investments, as well as multifamily and single-family …
Full company description
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It focuses on originating, structuring, and investing in first-lien mortgage loans, preferred equity, mezzanine loans, convertible notes, multifamily properties, and common equity investments, as well as multifamily and single-family rental commercial mortgage-backed securities securitizations, promissory notes, revolving credit facilities, and stock warrants or target assets. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc reported revenue of $126M in FY2025 versus $44.6M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +25.0%/yr from FY2021.
NREF screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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