Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc stock $33.50, price $13.40, upside +150.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.80 – $17.64 · fair‑value band $19.56 – $43.14 · the $13.40 price screens below the $33.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States.
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It focuses on originating, structuring, and investing in first-lien mortgage loans, preferred equity, mezzanine loans, convertible notes, multifamily properties, and common equity investments, as well as multifamily and single-family rental commercial mortgage-backed securities securitizations, promissory notes, revolving credit facilities, and stock warrants or target assets.
The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) currently trades at $13.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.50, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $41.52 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $13.40 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $22.64, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.56 (bear) to $43.14 (bull), the price of $13.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc reported revenue of $126M in FY2025 versus $44.6M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +25.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $309M Small · P/E ratio 5.9 · P/S ratio 4.88 · EPS (TTM) $2.29 · Dividend yield 14.9% · Net margin 83.3% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 150%, NREF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.56Fair Value $33.50Bull$43.14
Price $13.40 · Upside +150.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2487 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleBrian MittsDirector11,904 shares at $14.51$172,727Dec 18, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +55.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)14.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 130%
Compare Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside+150.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)66.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−13.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)14.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NREF
Frequently asked questions
Is Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.50 versus a price of $13.40, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NREF?
Our model-based fair value for Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is $33.50 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.40.
What is the quality score of NREF?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.50 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.56, optimistic scenario $43.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.50, about +150% upside versus a price of $13.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.56, optimistic scenario $43.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $151M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc pay a dividend?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 14.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc pays a dividend of $2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 14.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026, with payment on Dec 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 94.1% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 87.3%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc it is $33.50 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $13.40. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NREF trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.40, fair value $33.50, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NREF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.50). For Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc the two are $20.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc worth?
The market values Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc at about $309M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $13.40; our models calculate a fair value of $33.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NREF?
Our models span a range for Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc: cautious scenario $19.56, base $33.50, optimistic $43.14 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $13.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NREF?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.50 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.9 (reported for FY2025: 6.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 6.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 26.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 5.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NREF from its 52-week high?
Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc trades at $13.40, about 24% below its 52-week high of $17.64 and 16% above the low of $11.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $13.40, calculated fair value $33.50 (+150%), Quality Score 40/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NREF calculated?
We run Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc through 7 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $33.50 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $13.40. Our model-based fair value is $33.50, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.56). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($19.56 to $43.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The market capitalisation of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is $309M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 4.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Earnings per share at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc are $2.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The dividend yield of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 14.9% (payout 94.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 87.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The net margin of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 83.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
The operating margin of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is 63.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Revenue at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is growing −13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF)?
Earnings per share at Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc are growing −46.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is $22.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc (NREF) carry?
The net debt of Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc is $4.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026